Re:I'm giving up on PGP
by caf on Tuesday December 06, 2016 @10:17PM
(#13120181)
I don't believe so - it's n instances of a bi-valued random variable, IID. It's exactly the case the binomial distribution covers.
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Exactly. You have five chances at an event, and an event probability per chance, which is exactly what the binomial distribution is for.
The Poisson distribution is what you use when the effective number of chances is "large". The Poisson distribution is effectively a special case of the binomial distribution, where the number of chances is infinity, the probability per chance is infinitesimal, and the product of the two is the expected number of events.