>> the third scenario is that many people do not own a car in the future and we just subscribe to a car service

I have a feeling this is whats going to happen. People bought records, now they subscribe to Spotify.

Question is who will make money? Spotify does not, because labels have monopoly rights.

I cannot see a scenario where Uber is the winner here. Unlike record companies, there is competition between car companies, but still Uber has no entrenched position here to make a lot of money as far ad I can see.