When oil is no longer in demand

Re:When oil is no longer in demand by dx034 on Thursday December 01, 2016 @04:32AM (#13078254)

For a major shift we don't need to see 0 consumption. If consumption for electricity production and transportation is lowered significantly, this would lower demand enough to allow production on low-cost, traditional wells. We could have oil at <$30 and still get at least half the output we get today. This would mean that at least half the countries that are currently producing would be out of business. That includes all production in North America (with some low volume exceptions) and Europe, many African countries and South American countries like Venezuela.

A shift in production like this would have major effects. For the order in many emerging countries and the state of the economy and labour markets in developed markets. That the EIA doesn't include a potential collapse of a big US industry sector in their forecast is somehow clear, still doesn't mean that it won't happen.

I don't think that they forecasted the decline of coal as drastically as it happened. Oil could be similar, just much bigger.

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Re:When oil is no longer in demand by narrowrail on Thursday December 01, 2016 @06:36AM (#13078725)

What I'm seeing all over this thread is comments being made that don't comport with my knowledge of the energy industry.

>I don't think that they forecasted the decline of coal as drastically as it happened

Coal is starting to come back in the US right now because natural gas prices are starting to rise. For the first time, as of this month, the US is a net exporter of natural gas. Natural gas production increased 70% '05-'14, which caused it to become cheaper than coal. As the US increases exports, the price will make coal more competitive. US power generation facilities often have both NG and coal based turbines allowing them to switch between the two depending on cost. Be careful forecasting the future of energy from short periods of data; the entire energy industry is cyclical going back to when my grandfather was drilling for oil in the 1920s (he went broke).

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