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Re:An expert’s view on unusually warm Arctic temperatures by MooMooMilkParty on Saturday November 26, 2016 @06:45PM (#13046721)
Lorenz's Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow is the earliest work on the topic that I can think of. It's relatively accessible too.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469(1963)0...

Re:An expert’s view on unusually warm Arctic temperatures by mturmon on Saturday November 26, 2016 @06:55PM (#13046756)
Nice pointer. And in particular, Figure 2 of the paper you linked, which shows the simple "Lorenz System" orbiting about a state C for a long time, and then transitioning (at a hard-to-predict time) to a far-away state C'.