Re:Facebook Must Really Suck At Machine Learning
by tomp on Sunday November 20, 2016 @05:40PM
(#13001716)
Yeah I sometimes question the sensibility of even trying to assign probability to what are essentially one-time events. I prefer to think of it, the probability is either 0% or 100%, we just don't know it yet!
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Re:Facebook Must Really Suck At Machine Learning
by dllthomas on Sunday November 20, 2016 @09:10PM
(#13002546)
In a deterministic universe, there's a sense in which that's always the case. But really, probability is always "given the information available". "I know everything about a deterministic universe" is just a special case.
Related to the broader topic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoring_rule#Proper_scoring_ru...