Re:Scott Adams Answers Your Questions About Predicting Presi...
by pumblechook on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @01:22PM
(#12913056)
We obviously won't know until all the data is in, but looking at the county by county results seems to suggest that rural voters (who are predominantly working class whites) in swing states turned out for Trump in much greater numbers than anyone anticipated. Combine that with the fact that Clinton often underperformed or outright lost some number of counties in these states that Obama carried in 2012, and a picture starts to emerge. This was especially prevalent in Michigan and Wisconsin where she won in the cities and democratic strongholds but lost spectacularly outside of them.
This contradicts the "disgruntled blue collar white support base" narrative, and I'm interested in seeing evidence that figures out the difference. E.g. Did Hillary underperform in cities? Is there social pressure from progressives within the social circles of Trump voters? Did young college educated voters vote differently than expected?