I'm asking about the things that can be reasoned. For instance, something I realised a few months ago was that there is no good short term outcome from the US election. If Trump wins, there will be a bit of panic and I suspect markets will get hit. If Clinton wins, Trump will probably cause instability by starting lawsuits, claiming it was rigged, and stirring up his supporters; it could get very nasty.

I accept that publicising a prediction could change the course of things. That's okay.