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A comment on Barack Obama: Now Is the Greatest Time to Be Alive. Parent comment

Re:Barack Obama: Now Is the Greatest Time to Be Alive by blhack on Monday October 31, 2016 @08:22PM (#12842285)
>I put his support at closer to 40% than 50%.

Based on what?

Most of these polls (as of today), put Trump at within a few percentage points of Clinton:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

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Re:Barack Obama: Now Is the Greatest Time to Be Alive by maxerickson on Monday October 31, 2016 @08:41PM (#12842416)
Keep in mind that tracking polls track likely voters.

It's erroneous to extrapolate from likely voters to the population at large. Granted that the sentiment of likely voters will line up quite well with the population at large, it's just that a likely voter poll necessarily rejects people who don't give a shit. The people who don't give a shit shouldn't be counted as supporting anything.

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Re:Barack Obama: Now Is the Greatest Time to Be Alive by threeseed on Monday October 31, 2016 @08:29PM (#12842341)
Those daily tracking polls are garbage and should be ignored.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/n...

Trump is on average closer to 40%.

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Re:Barack Obama: Now Is the Greatest Time to Be Alive by douche on Monday October 31, 2016 @09:28PM (#12842645)
538 isn't really any less biased a source than Rasmussen or RealClearPolitics or the LA Times poll. They have a pretty clear agenda, and appear to be drafting on the tailwinds of past successes. They've been dismally wrong throughout the primary season.
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