Every story and comment from the Hacker News API, in a layout borrowed from 2001.
A comment on In Investing, It’s When You Start and When You Finish (2011). Parent comment
Valuation and long-term future returns seem indeed related historically https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/private-client-groups/artic...
For a more detailed treatment: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s338.pdf
Of course this kind of arguments are not bullet-proof, see for example: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2014/06/critique/
And one could have missed the last years of bull market applying these arguments already in 2013 (it doesn't mean that the conclusion was wrong with the 2023 horizon, though).
Anyway, ignoring valuation completely doesn't seem the right thing to do and people try to forecast returns to make asset allocation decisions: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/asset-allocation.ht...
I wouldn't call that market timing.
There are no comments on this comment yet.
Valuation and long-term future returns seem indeed related historically https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/private-client-groups/artic...
For a more detailed treatment: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s338.pdf
Of course this kind of arguments are not bullet-proof, see for example: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2014/06/critique/
And one could have missed the last years of bull market applying these arguments already in 2013 (it doesn't mean that the conclusion was wrong with the 2023 horizon, though).
Anyway, ignoring valuation completely doesn't seem the right thing to do and people try to forecast returns to make asset allocation decisions: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/asset-allocation.ht...
I wouldn't call that market timing.