I don't expect people to find much money in LED lightbulbs. You buy the LEDs from one of the big LED producers, and then the rest is commodity electronics. If there starts being money in it, new companies will jump in.

Which I suppose can get prices down to the point where someone can make a company that stays in business, but it won't get them to a point where there are significant profits to be found.

EDIT: The area where this is likely wrong is the locked-in home automation silos where you can get people into an ecosystem and then screw them as much as you like. I'm hoping we can avoid that being the dominant strategy.