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Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by CPLX on Saturday September 17, 2016 @03:05PM (#12521887)
This sounds like it was written by someone who has no direct experience (side note: selling people food you made in your home kitchen is illegal) and I am pretty sure restaurants, generally, aren't like tech startups, where you experiment to get product-market fit and so on.

People like food, they want to eat it, and chances are high you're making food that's generally recognizable as such and part of a general culinary category and price range. There are acceptable standards for service, wait times, cleanliness, and so on, that you can meet or exceed to provide a certain level of experience.

From what I understand, and being around the business, restaurants almost invariably sink or swim based on how good a real estate deal they've been able to get, and their ability to have a stable staff and be relentless about controlling costs, things like spoilage, advance planning, etc.

Software based startups are all about growth. You fuck around as you describe and when you nail the product it grows like crazy at a very low marginal cost.

Restaurant economics essentially look nothing like that. They aren't about growth, they are about margins, and since they have to be highly price competitive, that means fundamentally the business is about managing expenses.

Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by 1123581321 on Saturday September 17, 2016 @03:50PM (#12522121)
Responding to your side note: while home kitchen prep is illegal, there are plenty of options for commercial kitchen prep off-premises. A successful cafe in my city started by baking in a church's commercial kitchen, for example. Another is a food truck that also gets some time in another restaurant's kitchen.
Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by autarch on Saturday September 17, 2016 @07:25PM (#12523065)
> selling people food you made in your home kitchen is illegal

That depends. Minnesota passed a new law in 2015 called the Cottage Food law that allows certain types of food (primarily baked and canned goods) to be made in a home kitchen and sold to the public. See http://www.mda.state.mn.us/licensing/licensetypes/cottagefoo... for details.

I think this is pretty great. Regulation has its place, but there's a lot of value in allowing people to easily make an income too.

Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by kafkaesq on Saturday September 17, 2016 @04:15PM (#12522235)
From what I understand, and being around the business, restaurants almost invariably sink or swim based on how good a real estate deal they've been able to get, and their ability to have a stable staff and be relentless about controlling costs, things like spoilage, advance planning, etc.

This sounds like it was written by someone who doesn't like food. What I've seen in NYC, over and over again, is that of course you don't want the worst location (or financing terms), and you don't want to shoot yourself in the foot with incompetent operational management or an ever-churning staff. However, those are simply the prerequisites; they're necessary, but not sufficient for success.

If you want to thrive, you absolutely have to have a kick-ass product† (that you also happen to wholeheartedly believe in). If your menu just isn't inspiring (or it's too expensive or otherwise not right for the neighborhood / night-time crowd) -- it doesn't matter what your staff turnover is or much forethought you put into the operations. Inevitably you will fail.

But if your menu is truly awesome, people will make a beeline to your little hole-in-the-wall, wherever it is, and jostle for a spot at your narrow formica sitting counter and a chance to wolf down your product, nevermind the styrofoam bowls, plastic sporks and tissue-thin napkins.

Case in point: http://xianfoods.com

† By product I mean the combination of "menu offering, ambience, staff and cultural vibe." The interplay between these can be quite subtle, and it's tricky to get them right (which is why it's really to believe in what you're doing, and have taste in all things, not just food). The point I'm trying to make is that from what I've observed, it's definitely not primarily a matter of managing your margins and not getting screwed by your lease.

Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by CPLX on Saturday September 17, 2016 @04:49PM (#12522382)
I think you have it backwards. Generally edible and tasty food at a non insulting price is the prerequisite. It's not that hard to cook good food, I bet you know many amateurs that cook very well. And the subset of people with actual restaurant experience who can't make food people are willing to pay for is pretty small.

Nearly everyone in the restaurant business cooks good food. Many however can't figure out how to do it profitably.

There are always edge cases. If your food is incredibly good then people will beat a path to your door sure. But in a city of 24,000 restaurants the exceptions, the hundred or two out of the way culinary sensations tend to prove my general rule not undermine it. And even most of those don't make it to a seventh profitable year.

Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by Spooky23 on Saturday September 17, 2016 @08:01PM (#12523185)
If you're in NYC, and you're truly awesome, but have a shitty lease, you'll find yourself with a 5x increase that puts you out of business.

The places that last own the building or have a long lease.

Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by kafkaesq on Monday September 19, 2016 @01:45PM (#12533199)
I already acknowledged, in my post above, that of course you shouldn't have a "shitty" lease.

My point is that (along with all the other boxes one should tick in starting a restaurant in a cutthroat market like NYC) -- and in particular if your goal is to run a business that's actually thriving, and not just marginally surviving -- it's not sufficient.

Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by SolaceQuantum on Saturday September 17, 2016 @06:54PM (#12522951)
Xianfoods is far from an example you want. It is a large space that is relatively clean and has a strong brand in its area in an absolutely prime location for its food.

You'll more likely want one of the tens of hole in the wall spots around xianfoods that have no website, no name, not even a Yelp or a Google map indicator. Things that serve steamed buns out on the street or shops that are little more that hallways to order food and leave.

Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by kafkaesq on Saturday September 17, 2016 @07:12PM (#12523021)
But that't the whole point - Xi'an foods started as exactly the kind of a no-name, hole-in-the-wall like you describe.

How'd they get to where they are now? Because they get food, they get what what people really want, and they found a culinary niche that until that point had been widely ignored.

That's how they made their "brand".

Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by ArkyBeagle on Saturday September 17, 2016 @05:23PM (#12522530)
"...restaurants almost invariably sink or swim based on how good a real estate deal they've been able to get..."

This. One of my online contacts was the general manager of the world famous Armadillo World Headquarters in Austin, and that ended in 1983 because they lost their lease.

That's not exactly a restaurant, but it's close enough IMO for comparison.

Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by petra on Saturday September 17, 2016 @03:42PM (#12522073)
What about unique dishes ? According to the article , they have a lot of value, together with a chef's brand.

And does IP protection happens in that business ? How ?

Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by tptacek on Saturday September 17, 2016 @04:04PM (#12522191)
When's the last time you dined out --- had a whole meal --- on a "unique dish" in something other than a conventional table-service restaurant? Pretty much just food trucks, right?
Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by SolaceQuantum on Saturday September 17, 2016 @06:56PM (#12522960)
I once had an entire meal at an exclusively vegan/vegetarian Malaysian cuisine restaurant. The people serving were apparently staunch Buddhists. It was unconventional and great.
Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by tptacek on Saturday September 17, 2016 @07:00PM (#12522977)
Was the restaurant itself unconventional in some meaningful way? Did it not have table service? Was it in an outdoor pop-up space?

I guess I'm wondering:

The comment at the root of the thread suggests restaurant aspirants can address the risks of opening a new place by adopting the "MVP" ethos of startups.

Some discussion ensues suggesting that's unlikely to be the case.

Someone suggests that diners are likely to accept "MVP" restaurants, without the dominant expenses (notably: commercial real estate, staff expenses), if the dishes are original enough.

I'm wondering, outside of food trucks, does that ever happen?

Re:The Thrill of Losing Money by Investing in a Manhattan Re... by refulgentis on Saturday September 17, 2016 @11:17PM (#12523774)
It happened quite frequently in my hometown of Buffalo, NY – I think. I want to double check before I write up some examples, what do you envision that isn't a food truck, yet has no commercial real estate? Does opening a restaurant in a residential district count?

EDIT: I remembered one of them was featured in the NY Times this week, that makes it very to explain :) They started without a store front, selling bread to co-ops and food markets. It became a cult favorite, then it became a staple at local restaurants and coffee shops. They partnered with a excellent coffee shop, Public Espresso, to do a food truck, and launched this beautiful restaurant, in a light commercial corner in a heavily residential district. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/18/travel/breadhive-buffalo-r...