I think 30 years ago such talk would have mostly targeted Koreans. By then Japanese companies were fairly well-regarded (having had their own bumpy starts in previous decades). If anything I recall the perception in the '80s being that the Japanese were too good and would take over western economies.

Yes they did.

It's true if you're behind the state of the art you copy whoever is out in front. Because there's no reason to reinvent the wheel. Once you catch up, though, you start doing your own R&D because it makes sense to do so. That's what the Japanese did, that's what the Koreans did, and that's what the Chinese will do when they feel they've learned everything they can from manufacturers in other countries.

It's going to take awhile, though. Chinese companies are having problems filling slots at the very top of the high tech skill ladder. A relative of mine works for a company that moved an optics manufacturing operation from China to Switzerland for cost reasons. The particular expertise they needed is rare in China, and people who have it can write their own ticket.

This is completely nonsense. Japan did not commit mass espionage and IP theft.

Copying? Reverse-engineering? Sure, what country doesn't do that? That's the baseline. China is doing something completely different and on an entirely different level. The sheer volume and amount of IP theft and espionage they engage in is jaw-dropping. Whether they're using useful idiots/nationalists to steal the space shuttle plans, or running their hacker groups targeting corporate/governmental entities 24/7/365, it's moronic to equate that to Japan in the 70s/80s.

Again, Japan wasn't known for their espionage efforts because they engaged in so little in comparison with everyone else. Hell, Russia was the bigger threat in the 80s thanks to the cold war. Japan was a complete non-factor. Japan had a growing economy that people were scared would supplant the U.S but that's where the similarities end. I'm befuddled how this nonsense is allowed to stand here on hackernews. It's reddit level garbage.

>This is completely nonsense. Japan did not commit mass espionage and IP theft.

"Espionage"? I looked back through my post and didn't see that word anywhere.

>Copying? Reverse-engineering? Sure, what country doesn't do that?

Yes... and that was the point.

>I'm befuddled how this nonsense is allowed to stand here on hackernews. It's reddit level garbage.

Yes... yes it is.

You compared China of today to Japan of the 80s. That is laughable garbage, my comment was to show how moronic that thought process is.

Two things: One, it's not moronic at all. Modern China and 1980s Japan are very much in a similar economic position. And two, your comment did nothing to challenge that assertion.

Not even close. You can't be serious. China and Japan are nothing alike and any comparisons would be entirely irrelevant. For starters, Japan is a capitalistic economy with a democratic government. That alone is enough complexity to make any china >> japan comparison invalid. But just for a cherry on top; Japan 30 years ago wasn't known for excessive espionage and IP theft. Sure, all countries do it but China has taken IP theft to the next level -- their entire economy is practically based on it. Tell me, when was the last time you bought a knock-off from Japan? 30 years ago, knock-offs didn't come from Japan, they came from Singapore, Indonesia, Cambodia, China, Laos and a few other poor SE asian countries. But not Japan.

Sorry as another commenter pointed out, 30 years ago was a bit too late, add another 10 years. 40 years ago Japanese TVs and cars were complete knockoffs. They did the same stuff China is doing today. "Partnerships" and then suddenly suspiciously similar designs.

> China and Japan are nothing alike and any comparisons would be entirely irrelevant

My point isn't that China will follow the same steps as Japan. My point is that you couldn't predict Japan's trajectory - first people said they made crap knockoffs and exploited American free trade deals to dump prices, then when they started innovating, everyone said they were going to take over the world, and then suddenly Japan stagnated.

My only prediction is that China's future is just as uncertain, and any predictions are completely pulled out of anyone's ass.

and japan, and taiwan, and singapore,and south korea, and hong kong before the handover.

these articles are a cottage industry. just apply some racial stereotypes to whatever country you want to spotlight, generate some controversy and fear, and profit.