That's my point. You should invest your life in something where the value is higher. VCs would rather take a much lower chance at a higher payoff because they spread their risk around more, you cannot do so.

My numbers are hypothetical, but they are not tautological. That's my point- the VCs will take the lower expected payout, whether this is because they are bad at estimating risk or not I cannot say. I can say this is how they operate, because I've seen it, in every single startup that took VC investment.