Are you telling me that even though you, like me, don't know the exact percentage of the time that CPS is mistaken, you expect it to be less that 0.0036%?
First we see from the data that CPS declared 2.5 million of those 3.2 as "non-victims" so we can eliminate type 1 errors from almost 80% of the population right there.
Of the remaining 700k it's not inconceivable at all that in a big percentage of cases there were actually significant parental problems. Frankly I bet that type 2 errors are much more common that type 1 for this population.
> 2.5 million of those kids were declared 'non-victims.' Another 686,000 were 'abused' or 'neglected.' And an estimated 1,640 kids died as a result.
Their error rate on non-victims is a helluva alot higher than that.
I don't have faith their error rate for victims is much better given we don't have data for that.
Number of kids investigated by the CPS 3.2 million.
https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/196467.pdf