Re:July was the hottest month ever recorded, according to Nasa
by stillsut on Wednesday August 24, 2016 @09:12AM
(#12351723)
nl, do you deny there has been global warming?
We've already warmed close to +1C. While this huge +1C warming crisis was going on, we raised agricultural output by 10x. We've gone from thousands of people dying in hurricanes to dozens.
There is a warming amount ("climate sensitivity") that will rock our civilization, but it's not 2C - that amount would be background noise in the progress on the 21st century.
Re:July was the hottest month ever recorded, according to Nasa
by nl on Wednesday August 24, 2016 @07:29PM
(#12355996)
Hu? Of course I don't deny there is global warming(!!?)
2C is generally considered to be the line above which things are critical.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avoiding_Dangerous_Climate_Cha...
Firstly, 6B in Africa is the most pessimistic assumption possible[1].
Secondly, this is completely wrong: 1st world alone, and at their current and projected rate we'll continue to increase CO2 concentration and warm but second derivative of temperature will go strongly negative, and we will never hit a crisis.
To quote Wikipedia: In a scenario where global emissions start to decrease by 2010 and then declined at a sustained rate of 3% per year, the likely global average temperature increase was predicted to be 1.7 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2050, rising to around 2 °C by 2100.[2]
To make it clear: with a global reduction in emissions (not just first world) we are still in the "crisis" area of a 2 °C increase in temperatures by 2100.
Those estimates were made in 2008, and I believe we are already past the possibility of dropping emissions enough to meet those targets.
[1] https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/ (Need to choose Africa)
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_circulation_model