I literally had an Uber driver this morning who didn't speak enough English to take the route I requested. She knew "Hello", and "Have a nice day." No harm done if she's a competent driver.

Would I devote hours being behind the wheel? No. I would try to find a job UNIXing for food because that's what I know. But we're not talking about me. We're talking about folks who have a driver's license, a clean driving record and can pass a background check. If they don't have to supply the vehicle the financial barrier to entry is much lower.

So yes I honestly think there will be downward pressure on wages for what is essentially a passive job. Sure you have to pay attention to prevent accidents, but that's it. Time to get out dragon dictate and start verbally writing the next Great American Novel.

If you're paying attention to prevent collisions then it's not a passive job. And if I got into a car to find the 'driver' dividing their attention between the road and their novel then I would get right out again.

It doesn't require a great deal of attention, either, and it's still mostly passive. Unless you're suggesting we should outlaw conversations or listening to the radio we're past the idea that people need their full undivided attention to drive. The question now is just what's the minimum.

I've seen people die in the ED because they treated driving as a passive activity. I find your hyperbole about outlawing conversations unhelpful. I very much look forward to computers having better driving skills than I had when I used to work in the ambulance service.

First, I note that you've got from "far less" to "downward pressure." Are you modifying your claim? I think that there is a considerably more colorable argument that it might shave 5 to 10% off the wages of a driver than that it might shave 50% off the wages of the driver.

While shifting the costs of vehicle purchase and maintenance from the driver to Uber is a factor, it's not enough to make driver wages "far less," and Uber has already been offering various assistances to drivers towards vehicle ownership, so nothing very dramatic is happening there -- and in any case, none of that savings will make it to the passenger, who ultimately is paying for the vehicle.

Making "far less" money than a typical Uber driver means around minimum-wage job or below. Let me suggest that there is no large pool of people who are interested in a roughly minimum-wage job with no security or prospect for advancement, who can plausibly save you from dying in a car crash.

(PS: There is no way that Uber would allow its drivers to dictate a novel while a passenger is in the car).

Sadly there is no RemindMe for ycombinator, but yes I believe "far less" is still my conclusion here. I didn't quantify far less and I'm not sure exactly how much it means? Thirty percent less? Fifty percent less? Not sure but yes I expect it'll be more than a 5 to 10% haircut you cited. And more importantly - profits will be far less if Uber adopts a taxi-like model of supplying the hardware and charging drivers a use fee.