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Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @08:57AM (#12275197)
No, but at the moment there are many such jobs. Maid, cook, child care, a significant amount of construction labor, etc.

I blogged about this a while back. Until robots do all the jobs that are actually done in India (e.g. robot cooks, robot maids, robot cigarette walas), there still exist jobs people can do. Americans just refuse to do them, since it's easier to not work.

https://www.chrisstucchio.com/blog/2016/robots_didnt_take_ou...

That may happen one day, but at the moment we have a scarcity of labor rather than a surplus.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by PeterisP on Friday August 12, 2016 @10:18AM (#12275814)
Those jobs are impossible without a very high inequality. In the first world, there is a much smaller gap between the average wage and the minimum allowed wage than in India, making impossible many jobs that are time intensive with low revenue.

An engineer can have a cook and a driver if they make ten times as much as a cook or a driver; this arrangement doesn't really work if a typical engineer makes e.g. two or three times as much.

Yes, there would be a larger total demand for labor if we allowed the price to drop below that. But we don't. As we cut off the market to allow only transactions above the "livable wage" price floor, then at that price level we have a surplus of labor supply and a lack of demand.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @10:24AM (#12275876)
India has lower income inequality than the US. Your hypothesis seems falsified.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_eq...

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by PeterisP on Friday August 12, 2016 @10:58AM (#12276218)
This measure of inequality is mostly influenced by the distance between the mean income and the largest earners (who constitute a huge portion of the total GDP), however, I still maintain that in India there is a much larger distance between the mean income and the lowest wages of simple laborers/maids/walas/etc than the first world.

It seems that you are from India, can you give an anecdotal example of how large is difference between the income of "typical" experienced white collar specialist and the income of cheapest maids, cooks or cigarette walas, the bottom part of the labor pool?

E.g. in the UK the median hourly wage is roughly twice as much as the minimum; the very very lowest possible paying job pays half that of a "normal" average job; and statistics show that the median salary of a software engineer, considered a lucrative career, is 6 times that of the minimum.

Obviously the average person can't buy much of services (no matter how unskilled and lowpaid) of others, since buying 40 hours/week of anyone costs at least half of their total income; and a software engineer could have a full-time (again, 40hr/week not the whole week) cook/maid/driver/whatever only if he paid him at least 1/6th of his total income.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @11:17AM (#12276364)
I'm not from India but I spend a lot of time there. Most people don't have a full time maid. They have a maid who comes daily (or maybe 3x/week) and also works for others.

This is quite feasible economically in the US - suppose cleaning a home takes 2 hours and a maid accepts $10/hour. That's $20/day or $430/month (assuming 5x/week). So in the US you could get comparable levels of service for maybe $1000/month. It's just not feasible right now because maids cost a lot more than $10/hour.

A maid working 10 hours/day, 5 days/week would be earning $2150/month. For comparison, US GDP/capita works out to $4,400/month. (Mean wage/compensation is a bit lower than this.)

But you don't even need to look at money to determine this is feasible. You just need to count. Take the number of people sitting around on welfare/disability fraud/etc, multiply by the number of houses they could clean each day, and you can determine how many maids the US could have.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by PeterisP on Friday August 12, 2016 @11:33AM (#12276479)
The thing is, there really isn't a market for a huge number of maids when it costs $1000/month, and you can't really go below that because, as you say, $10/hour.. about the minimum wage in many places.

The middle class in USA definitelly can't afford to pay $12k/year (plus taxes!) for such a service. The most highly paid white collar professions would generally scoff at such an expense. At best, the top 1% could afford that, but they don't employ that much maids because there's not so many so rich people.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @02:29PM (#12277743)
The middle class in the USA is already paying for such a service! When you pay taxes, the bulk of it is just redistributed to people who don't work.

All I'm proposing is that we restructure things so that instead of getting nothing for your money you get something.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by sanderjd on Wednesday August 24, 2016 @11:32AM (#12352753)
I know this is an old thread that I'm unlikely to get a response to, but I can't tell whether you're proposing a federal make-work program or a free-market restructuring. If the latter, you seem to be ignoring the demand side of the equation, which makes your whole proposal unworkable - there isn't demand for this in the US, and not just for financial reasons, the middle class here is unlikely to employ (what we see as) servants for social reasons as well. If you're proposing a make-work program where tax dollars go toward putting people to work, maybe that's a good idea, but I'd rather see those people working on improving our crumbling infrastructure, or perhaps on creating new high-speed rail, than cleaning middle class houses.
Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by dragonwriter on Friday August 12, 2016 @04:50PM (#12278701)
> When you pay taxes, the bulk of it is just redistributed to people who don't work.

Okay, there's a sense in which that's true, but...

> All I'm proposing is that we restructure things so that instead of getting nothing for your money you get something.

The problem with that (aside from any other problems with the whole "basic job" idea) is that the only sense in which it the preceding claim is true is if you count medical and contribution-qualified programs for the aged and disabled (which are the bulk of payments "to people who don't work".)

I mean, this characterization is ludicrous unless your plan is to drag people out of nursing homes to serve in your Basic Job Army.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @05:53PM (#12279056)
Are you seriously claiming that the only non-working government dependents are the elderly and disabled?

I've linked to this expose by NPR on disability fraud before: http://apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by dragonwriter on Friday August 12, 2016 @06:03PM (#12279113)
> Are you seriously claiming that the only non-working government dependents are the elderly and disabled?

I'm saying that the overwhelming majority of government spending on the non-working is benefits to the aged and disabled.

SS and Medicare alone are the majority of such spending, and go exclusively to that group, and overwhelming to the aged specifically; the next big chunk is Medicaid (at least, the portion that goes to people that aren't working, some Medicaid beneficiaries are low-income but employed) which, while income qualified, has a very significant fraction of its expenses go to Medicaid/Medicare dual eligibles.

And, so, to the extent that your pointing to the share of government spending that goes to the non-working is intended as something other than a red herring, it only makes sense if you plan on dragging the aged and disabled into your forced labor army as a condition of their continued survival.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by kamaal on Friday August 12, 2016 @12:28PM (#12276891)
Its possible only because human labor is cheap. And that is because those people have nothing else to do. Population is high, resources are scanty. People will do whatever they can to make a living.

But in most urban metros, cost of human labor is only going up. Washing machines are all over the places, dryers which were absent even a few years back are showing up. Robot vacuum cleaners are replacing few-hours/day maids all the time.

This is even more so in high rising apartments. Maid culture and personal servant culture in India is ending with urban living.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by burkaman on Friday August 12, 2016 @11:58AM (#12276652)
You can't just look at the supply side. It's hard to imagine there's very much demand for $500-$1000/month maid services, especially in areas where all these people on welfare live.

Also, do you know anyone on welfare in the US? Do they really seem like they're "sitting around" to you?

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by kamaal on Friday August 12, 2016 @12:21PM (#12276836)
As an Indian. Let me tell you the kind of inequality you see in the US is very different compared to the kind of inequality you see in India. By many a definition, no one is poor in the US. Also US has better infrastructure and economic opportunities than India for everyone. By infrastructure I mean access to clean drinking water, sanitation and things like roads.

US has more a problem of strict tax accountability for upper-middle-to-lower classes, while none for the rich. And lack of chances to breaking income ceilings. Swim lanes in US are decided in the first 20-25 years of life and things are pretty much set from there on.

While in India we still have people eating rotis(Indian flat bread) made out wild grass with salt once/twice a day merely to stay alive.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by randallsquared on Friday August 12, 2016 @09:25AM (#12275403)
> there still exist jobs [like maid, cook, child care] people can do. Americans just refuse to do them

In many cases Americans refuse to hire them, for cultural reasons that may be the flip side of Americans refusing to do them. Child care is one that there seems to be a lot of (at least, one hears about it a lot), but maid, cook, butler, and even general handyman are positions that many Americans won't consider hiring someone for, in any stable, ongoing way.

I have no problem hiring an electrician to come in and rewire parts of my (1950s era) house, because the maximum I'm willing to pay is above the minimum I would need to pay to avoid feeling like I was cheating them. For full-time cook or maid or general laborer, the willing-max is below the fair-min.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @10:22AM (#12275857)
This is an interesting hypothesis - a culturally imposed minimum wage. I'm a bit suspicious because I don't see much evidence of a floor. For example, people seem quite willing to hire Mexicans outside home depo for relatively low wages.

The common solution to sticky nominal wages is economic stimulus; inflate away real wages to trick people into hiring at lower real wages. Do you think that would fix this issue?

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by ohnomrbill on Friday August 12, 2016 @09:53AM (#12275605)
Anyone can cook. Will people pay me a living wage to cook? Will that wage cover lost income from being on government programs? Does cooking (given the relative difficulty of becoming wealthy doing so) provide an income ceiling higher than getting paid via welfare/Social Security?

There is plenty of work to be done. It's just not paid work. How do you propose to coerce people to pay for this work?

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @10:07AM (#12275718)
I propose to replace welfare/disability fraud/etc with a guarantee job (FDR style) that pays in-kind benefits. I.e., if you claim you can't find a job, the government will give you a job fixing our crumbling infrastructure, providing child care for working women, or similar things. In return you get a room in a government dormitory, a healthy meal from the government cafeteria, a government track suit, etc.

Now the "sit at home playing video games and get free money" choice has been removed. You'll still have a minimum standard of living, but you must contribute to the world rather than simply living a life of leisure. I.e. shared responsibility.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by auggierose on Friday August 12, 2016 @10:20AM (#12275836)
I don't want my children to be taken care of by people forced by the government to work. I would want them to enjoy that work AND be skilled in it.
Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @10:33AM (#12275959)
No one is forced to do anything. Anyone who doesn't want a government job is free to refuse and make their own way in the world - in fact, that's the preferred option.

If you are actually saying you don't want your children taken care of by someone doing it for the money (or prefer a person selling the "artisinal child care" persona), that's fine. Many wealthy people in the west can afford to hold out for such things.

Others are less picky and just need a responsible adult to keep their children from eating poop or dying of thirst, and teaching them a little Marathi is just a bonus. Should those people be deprived since the service doesn't meet your standards? Note that public schools mainly just meet the latter standard - should we get rid of them also?

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by auggierose on Friday August 12, 2016 @10:53AM (#12276172)
It is a matter of how that job offer is set up. If the terms are "pick one of these 100 government jobs or we cut your benefits" then clearly the people you will get for that job will be different than your standard public school teacher, who is supposed to have studied for that job (at least that is how it is in Germany). IF on the other hand you establish child care as a proper job that people can take or leave, just like being a public school teacher, then that would be adequate. But I would want some government regulated certification for that job, because what being a "responsible adult" means is too vague and too subjective for child care.

So, if child care is just another job (as it is now), what would your proposal mean? Basically, that the government pays for an army of child carers, and that that army would be funded by tax. Just like the public school system.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @11:08AM (#12276296)
As I said repeatedly above, the basic job guarantee is just another job. It pays primarily in-kind benefits (i.e. rooms in govt dorms, govt cafeteria food, etc) and little money, and it's available to anyone who wants it. Also welfare is eliminated the day we create the basic job (or after some phase-in period, more realistically).

So basically yes, the government will pay for an army of child carers, an army of infrastructure fixers, an army of trash picker uppers, etc. It just won't pay very much and most of what it pays will be in-kind benefits rather than money (e.g. rooms in government dorms in low cost areas).

It's interesting that you are suggesting people who are currently on government benefits are disproportionately unsuitable for child care. Can you expand on this? My attempts to fill in the blanks here lead me to the idea that poor people are irresponsible and morally defective (e.g., they might ignore it when children start hitting each other with rocks), but I suspect that isn't a claim you'll endorse. Could you clarify in detail what you mean?

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by prostoalex on Friday August 12, 2016 @02:34PM (#12277777)
> So basically yes, the government will pay for an army of child carers, an army of infrastructure fixers, an army of trash picker uppers, etc. It just won't pay very much and most of what it pays will be in-kind benefits rather than money

This did not seem to work for Soviet Union (and its reluctant allies), and market realities still exposed themselves - if you wanted to hire a government plumber, repairman, electrician, dentist, etc., you were welcome to sign up for a long waiting list or miss a few appointments here and there, because hey, what exactly is the accountability here? They won't fire you.

If you actually needed to get the job done, be prepared to offer a generous tip, which in absence of solid money would have to be something bartered (vodka, spare car parts and gold were among the unofficial currencies pervasive in USSR).

Once such economy evolves, even the people who were trying to put in a minimal effort at their government-sponsored job just stop, because they feel they're getting the shorter end of the stick than the guy accepting generous gifts. Moreover, people at the occupations that are not typically monetized in a market economy (librarians, for example) start thinking of good ways to establish some barriers to force consumers towards such generosity (by withholding high-demand books, not providing information in a timely manner, etc.) Now a portion of a population is on an active mission to create problems in society rather than solve them, as their additional monetization efforts depend on existence of such problems.

This second-order effect seems to penalize the poor (and un-connected) even harsher than before.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @02:54PM (#12277923)
The Soviet Union had only this system, nothing else. I'm proposing is using this kind of a system to provide government services (e.g. filling in potholes) in return for money we are already spending.

In the Soviet Union, there was no private sector. I'm proposing no restrictions on the private sector - in fact, one explicit goal of this system is to make government dependence less pleasant (you need to go out into the national park and build trails rather than sitting at home playing video games) so that more people enter the private sector.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by dragonwriter on Friday August 12, 2016 @03:58PM (#12278345)
> In the Soviet Union, there was no private sector.

AFAICT, this was strictly true (if at all) only between the first Five Year Plan and 1936; the private sector (that is, non-government directed business) was restricted in both what markets it could participate, and the forms of business (in most markets where private industry was allowed, the only business form allowed was the individual independent worker/owner, to use the language of capitalist economy) but it was not nonexistent.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @05:54PM (#12279064)
Ok. The only thing I'm proposing doing is reducing the disincentives to joining the private sector. Comparisons to the Soviet Union are nonsensical.
Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by dragonwriter on Friday August 12, 2016 @06:12PM (#12279163)
> The only thing I'm proposing doing is reducing the disincentives to joining the private sector.

No, that's not all you are proposing. You are proposing a particular mechanism that you claim is aimed at that goal (not merely proposing the goal itself), which has concrete features beyond just the goal you claim for it.

> Comparisons to the Soviet Union are nonsensical.

Perhaps, but you haven't provided a reason to believe that, just offered a factually-incorrect distinction between your proposal and the labor policy of the Soviet Union.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by prostoalex on Friday August 12, 2016 @03:18PM (#12278077)
In this dual system what happens to the government-run pothole-filling entity (and its employees) when it's outbid by a private pothole-filling contractor on most/all jobs?
Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @03:47PM (#12278261)
Then the private pothole filling entity gets the contract, and the government directs it's dependents to do something else.

But it'll actually be pretty hard for the private sector to compete on any task requiring unskilled labor. The government gets labor at nearly zero marginal cost since it would be paying those people even if it didn't put them to work.

Again, literally the only thing I'm proposing is that instead of giving people money NOT to work, we instead give them money to work. I'm not proposing communism or slave labor.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by dragonwriter on Friday August 12, 2016 @04:24PM (#12278533)
> Again, literally the only thing I'm proposing is that instead of giving people money NOT to work, we instead give them money to work.

No, you are actually proposing giving them money, whether or not there is work, and then trying to scrounge up some (perhaps meaningless) work so that the money you give them cannot be used for personal development, small entrepreneurship, etc.

> I'm not proposing communism or slave labor.

Forced, economically inefficient (hence, why there is no demand in the private market including that fulfilling government contracts) labor through economic coercion rather than chattel slavery, but I'm not sure that the difference is meaningful, especially if there really is a problem of a growing-over-time number of people unemployable at any given time in the private market due to changes which render their labor superfluous given the available alternatives.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @05:59PM (#12279093)
No, you are actually proposing giving them money,...

We already give them money. I'm simply accepting that this is unlikely to change.

Forced, economically inefficient (hence, why there is no demand in the private market including that fulfilling government contracts)

The labor is not forced you are free to turn it down. We have no way of knowing whether the labor is economically inefficient, due to existing market distortions caused by paying people not to work.

In any case, unless you are claiming that there is no valuable government work to be done at all (are you?), it's a little silly to suggest that my plan to redirect idle labor into providing those government services is inefficient. The labor is either wasted or it's consumed.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by prostoalex on Friday August 12, 2016 @03:51PM (#12278292)
> The government gets labor at nearly zero marginal cost since it would be paying those people even if it didn't put them to work.

The motivation for the overseers is clear. The worker bees have two choices - work hard (and get paid) versus do nothing (and get paid). Why would the workers go for the former versus the latter?

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by dragonwriter on Friday August 12, 2016 @05:33PM (#12278959)
Presumably, when ordered to work, the benefits would be cut off if the work was refused or performed unacceptably.

I mean, otherwise this whole mandatory-work-for-benefits thing doesn't make any sense (not to say that its a good idea even then.)

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by dragonwriter on Friday August 12, 2016 @03:25PM (#12278129)
I think the idea is that the jobs the government entity does are government-demanded jobs, and that private entities won't be given a chance to bid on them; they'll be reserved to the government and the pool of people it keeps out of regular work by reserving work for the command segment of the economy.
Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by prostoalex on Friday August 12, 2016 @03:41PM (#12278227)
Right, if one introduces monopolies on certain job sectors, it's not a dual system, it's two parallel systems.

There are some short-term issues as far as performance and accountability for those hired into such monopolies, as well as aynrandian incumbency protection, such as rejecting light bulbs as too many are employed in the candle-making sector.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by unprepare on Friday August 12, 2016 @01:05PM (#12277152)
and for people who arent physically capable of doing these jobs? if we're dismantling welfare system then how are these people surviving?

what about people who get illnesses that take them away from work for extended periods? people needed multiple surgeries, months of physical therapy, assistance of medical devices, etc.

is healthcare included in this government job? if so, what isnt covered? if not, how are people expected to stay healthy enough to continue working?

mental health care?

how are these people expected to save for retirement?

are people over the age of, say, 75 expected to work as construction workers if they didnt save enough for retirement?

How and when would these workers have the time and money to become trained for better paying careers? does this job come with some tuition programs also?

you mention trash pickers, why wouldnt that be automated, or is this a scheme by which we outlaw the automation of sectors of the economy in order to protect these government jobs?

would these workers/companies compete on the open marketplace with others, or would this be a government monopoly?

if its not a monopoly, say im hired as a child carer. what do i do when one day theres no child to take care of because people dont want the shitty government child caretakers, they want to private ones? do i get fired? do i get paid to sit in the government office and wait? can i go home? is this an economically efficient use of a persons time?

if im to sit and wait in an office until the end of the day, how is that different than a UBI other than i have to sit in an office all day?

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by auggierose on Friday August 12, 2016 @11:15AM (#12276351)
Please don't put words in my mouth I didn't say. It is a matter of motivation, you need people who are motivated to do a job and skilled enough to do it. YOU brought up the public school teacher as an example, and I like it. A child carer needs to be compensated with money, just as any other professional or teacher, because money means choice and power. A child carer should not be forced into a salary race to the bottom, and it is ridiculous to assume that a child carer would want to work just for food and a roof over his/her head. This is NOT a deal any responsible adult in my opinion should take, and somebody who takes that deal is per se disqualified to take care of my children.
[dead]
Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by dragonwriter on Friday August 12, 2016 @03:03PM (#12277987)
A "positive question" about "objectively bad" is a oxymoron. "Bad" is inherently subjective and, always a normative rather than positive issue.
Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @03:40PM (#12278214)
True. A better way to phrase it would have been "are there any objectively measurable things that happen to the children which are widely perceived to be bad?"
Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by Falkon1313 on Saturday August 13, 2016 @12:43AM (#12280318)
This is 100% wrong. We have a large surplus of labor, and no demand for it. Wages have been stagnant for decades. If there was a demand for labor, wages would be increasing. They're not. It's common for a minimum wage job (or below) to have 200+ applicants.

You're suggesting that when 200 people apply for a single waitress job, all 200 should be hired? That's going to be a really crowded restaurant. The Fire Marshal might have a problem with that. How many people do you need to hand you your burger anyway?

Agricultural jobs are out. Less than 2% of the workforce now produces more than double the food the entire population needs, plus exports, cattle feed, pet food, biofuels, and agricultural products used in manufacturing, etc. Manufacturing is rapidly going the same direction. Soon less than 2% of the population will be able to manufacture way more stuff than we need. That leaves only the service sector. The service sector is a weird beast, ranging from the below-minimum-wage waiters/waitresses (for which there is no demand) up to professionals like psychiatrists (where we really do have a scarcity). But at the moment, at least, costs of higher education are skyrocketing. Sending those 200 unsuccessful waiters through 8-10 years of school to become psychiatrists would enable some few to excel, but what about the rest? And what about the cost?

Having 200 people serve you your burger is not a solution. Forcing 200 unsuccessful waiters through 8-10 years of higher education is not a solution. Forcing children, the elderly, and the disabled to work is not a solution. The main problem is a lack of demand for labor, and the only way to solve that is to artificially create a demand. But now you're just paying people to dig holes that don't need to be dug and then fill them back in. That's useless and degrading. Why are we even doing that? What is the law of nature proclaiming that anyone who doesn't spend most of their life making someone else richer should die of starvation?

We need to rethink the basics. We need to rethink what we expect of people and why. This is not a futuristic sci-fi singularity thing, this is something that is happening right here and now, and it's already affecting us.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by TimJRobinson on Friday August 12, 2016 @11:54AM (#12276625)
The main reason most countries don't force those on welfare to work is that some of the current recipients will say "screw this I'm not working for peanuts" and turn to theft, selling drugs or prostitution. If they were allowed to just be they would entertain themselves at home. So you have to be willing to accept this increased crime tradeoff for this to work.
Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @12:05PM (#12276701)
So poor people are a bunch of stationary bandits and we pay them money in tribute to prevent them from harming us? What horrible people you make them out to be.

(Note: I have no problem with people who sell drugs or sex and think both should be legal. I'm referring specifically to theft here.)

I'm not sure why we need to accept this increased crime tradeoff. Why can't we (here "we" refers to folks who are willing to work for money rather than steal) just wall ourselves off from them?

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by TimJRobinson on Friday August 12, 2016 @12:34PM (#12276937)
Most aren't, but some are, and as there is no way to separate the good from the bad you have to take this into account.

I'm just pointing out the main flaw in this plan and the reason it (as far as I know) has never been implemented. You can argue against a strawman all you like but it's not going to solve any problems.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @02:24PM (#12277700)
Why is there no way to separate the good from the bad? Just have a strict "one strike and you're out" policy.

It's certainly a fallacy to say that a plan is impossible because no one has done it before; everything has a first time. It's irrelevant in this case, however. FDR implemented it, it was called the Civilian Conservation Corp and it was awesome - we got a national park system out of the deal. India does it too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Rural_Employment_Guar...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_Conservation_Corps

South Africa and Argentina have similar programs but I don't know as much about them.

http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_534.pdf

http://www.epwp.gov.za/

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by dragonwriter on Friday August 12, 2016 @05:51PM (#12279048)
> FDR implemented it, it was called the Civilian Conservation Corp and it was awesome

Its an awesome solution to a particular kind of transitory unemployment (and, at the scale it had at its height, perfectly sensible when there is a large, national, temporary economic dislocation) where you expect that the kind of work that people were doing before will be in demand again.

Its less good as a way of dealing with long-term structural changes in the economy -- either in the proportion of people employable at living wages in the marketplace or the jobs demanded. Particularly the latter, since locking people into public make-work jobs with mostly or entirely in-kind, survival-necessity payment provides little opportunity for adjustment to labor market changes.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by Slaul on Friday August 12, 2016 @10:23AM (#12275863)
There is no way I would trust someone to mind a child if they are being forced to do it.
Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by dragonwriter on Friday August 12, 2016 @05:02PM (#12278786)
> Maid, cook, child care

...

> Americans just refuse to do them

Lots of Americans work as cooks, work cleaning homes, or work in child care. Wages in all three of those areas are quite low, there's not demand for a lot more that would provide livable wage in any of them.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by eli_gottlieb on Friday August 12, 2016 @09:11AM (#12275295)
>That may happen one day, but at the moment we have a scarcity of labor rather than a surplus.

Then why have real wages dropped for much of the population, and why is the labor share of GDP at an all-time low?

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @09:17AM (#12275339)
First of all, this is a non-sequitur. Market prices can go up or down while scarcity still exists. Scarcity is simply a situation where a lot of people want a good or service, but not all of them can have it.

Secondly, your claims about market prices are not even directionally correct. Real wages have dropped because compensation has shifted from wages to benefits. (This effect is larger at the bottom, since non-wage benefits are a fixed cost while wages are variable.) Real compensation per hour has only gone up.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPRNFB

The labor share of GDP is down mainly because investment income (primarily from housing) has increased faster than labor income.

https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/deciphering-the-fall...

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2015a_r...

Also, significant chunks of the economy have moved into non-labor personal income as the government has shifted from infrastructure/public goods to wealth redistribution.

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by jbooth on Friday August 12, 2016 @09:38AM (#12275493)
If we're talking about economics, I'd say that a 'scarcity' which isn't pushing wages up isn't a scarcity worth thinking about. Money talks.
Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @09:51AM (#12275586)
Compensation per hour is being pushed up. What's so special about taxable wages as opposed to non-taxable benefits?

If taxable wages are preferable to non-taxable benefits, should we eliminate the various laws (e.g. Obamacare, 401k) that push employers to provide benefits rather than wages?

Also, there are many market distortions that won't push wages up but will still create scarcity. For example, we could simply ban food vendors/cigarette walas/etc, or we could impose various occupational licensing rules that raise wages for some while lowering them for others. Why are those not worth thinking about?

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by cousin_it on Friday August 12, 2016 @09:03AM (#12275241)
Interesting. It seems like a big culprit is high cost of living, which makes many jobs no longer worthwhile. Any ideas why it's so much higher in the US than in India? Is it due to landlords?
Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by yummyfajitas on Friday August 12, 2016 @09:12AM (#12275300)
I discuss in the article a bit. India is more capitalistic than the US, at least in this regard.

Their safety net is a job guarantee rather than the US's ragbag of free money programs (welfare, disability fraud [1], etc), so you don't get to enjoy a life of leisure under any circumstance. In the US, it's pretty easy to get free money and play video games all day.

Second, their regulatory structure doesn't destroy as many low skill jobs as ours does (e.g. in the US, a cigarette wala like Eric Garner gets executed, and the cops shut down many food trucks).

[1] NPR did an expose a while back on the massive levels of disability fraud in the US. Apparently it's now a shadow welfare system, significantly larger than actual welfare: http://apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by leereeves on Friday August 12, 2016 @09:10AM (#12275288)
Americans expect and demand a lifestyle most Indians only dream of.

For example, electric power consumption per capita is 765 kWh in India, 12,988 kWh in the USA. [1]

1: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC

Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by eli_gottlieb on Friday August 12, 2016 @09:14AM (#12275314)
Admittedly, the vast majority of India is nowhere near as cold as the vast majority of America. Americans have to spend energy avoiding death by frost much of the year.
Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by ozborn on Friday August 12, 2016 @10:32AM (#12275953)
Like many living in the southern USA my air conditioning expenses are much higher than my heating expenses, I'm sure many Indians wouldn't mind air conditioning either.
Re:The brave new world of robots and lost jobs by leereeves on Friday August 12, 2016 @09:17AM (#12275343)
If we were willing to accept India-like population density and energy use, we could all live in the parts of the US where that's not the case.