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A comment on How the Arab World Came Apart. Parent comment
The authors of the book Superforecasting : The Science of Prediction have done research in this area. And a website [2]
Nate Silver also tells a similar story in his book. He proved it too, by turning pundit.
[1] https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...
[2] http://www.superforecasting.com/
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The authors of the book Superforecasting : The Science of Prediction have done research in this area. And a website [2]
Nate Silver also tells a similar story in his book. He proved it too, by turning pundit.
[1] https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...
[2] http://www.superforecasting.com/