You may have misunderstood me. I am saying that while attribution is a very tricky, difficult business fraught with guesswork and spectra of probabilities, in this one instance a ton of infosec people are throwing their typical caution about attribution out the window to claim full confidence in attribution to Putin on the basis of a shared IP address in France and a Romanian who says Guccifer2 doesn't write like a Romanian.

It is a great demonstration of what politics does to the minds of nominally cautious, reasonable people.