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A comment on History of China's Nine-Dash Line. Parent comment

Re:History of China's Nine-Dash Line by Freak_NL on Tuesday July 19, 2016 @01:25PM (#12123193)
China appears to be testing if they can push this far. It's not just a matter of military power; China's economy depends on their exports to Europe and Northern America (so sanctions can really hit hard), and shipping through the South China Sea is a big deal to Europe, Northern America, South Korea, and Japan.

China is actively trying to influence the situation with soft power as well. The Chinese ambassador in The Netherlands paid for a full page advert in a national newspaper to publish a letter condemning the 'illegitimate' court that ruled on this dispute with The Philippines. The fact that he couldn't get his letter published normally (and for free) in the op/ed sections of any Dutch newspaper is telling though.

I suspect they are going for an absurd claim in order to 'graciously' come to a compromise of about half of that (certainly including the Paracel Islands) after a while, but the situation is certainly unique. They are more than likely strengthened in their confidence by the lack of consequences of the Crimean annexation by Russia (although the economic sanctions hurt Russia quite bad).

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Re:History of China's Nine-Dash Line by marme on Tuesday July 19, 2016 @03:20PM (#12124115)
this is the way chinese negotiate in all business deals. First the seller quotes an absurd price like ten times the value of what they are selling then the buying offers an absurd low price maybe 10% or even 1% the value of the item then they both slowly move towards the real price over the course of dozens of back and forth offers. It would be unheard of for a chinese business deal to close after a single round of negotiating. Every country that has resolved their disputes with china has gone through this and china has come down from their original ask to something reasonable but of course in china's overall favor
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Re:History of China's Nine-Dash Line by googletazer on Tuesday July 19, 2016 @01:57PM (#12123490)
Imo they are ideologically strengthened for historical reasons. You can't grab pieces of the world for two centuries and subvert democratically elected governments with military dictatorships that are favorable to you and then once a strong contender appears tell them its the 21st century now and not how things are done anymore. They aren't stupid and they know that might makes right.

China is on an upswing trajectory and their people know it from increases in real income for vast majority of the population. It was the strongest country in the world for centuries, and they'll regain that title again, eventually.

Russia lost too much brainpower in the past 25 years. Too many Russians and Russian Jews emigrated to US to use their PhDs to make money on Wall St. They're not coming back, and it will take another 25 years to grow a new generation of minds to lead Russia. Yes, Chinese students go to foreign universities but in general China doesn't have a brain drain problem, and thats why they'll win.

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Re:History of China's Nine-Dash Line by douche on Tuesday July 19, 2016 @03:14PM (#12124071)
They're on the upswing until the bubble pops, anyway. They've got some demographic issues coming down the pike at them, as well.

I hope things don't deteriorate into massive bloodshed and revolt when the music stops and the economy backslides, but that's what has tended to happen in the past, and Chinese history is more cyclical than most...

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Re:History of China's Nine-Dash Line by googletazer on Tuesday July 19, 2016 @05:01PM (#12124857)
And they're very proactive in handling their issues. I do agree with you that history moves into cycles - some of the most most powerful entities that were at least in part democracies (athens, poland, etc..) were bested by absolutist regimes , which afterwards were overcome by democracies themselves.

Top-down approach doesn't always work, but did wonders for them for the past 30 years. Meanwhile members of the British working class have voted for Brexit to protect their interests (good for them), and US might follow soon with Trump. How confident were they in things getting better compared with the Chinese?

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Re:History of China's Nine-Dash Line by idra on Tuesday July 19, 2016 @03:21PM (#12124122)
> China doesn't have a brain drain problem

Oh really? China has a disastrous brain drain problem.

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21701651-chinas...

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Re:History of China's Nine-Dash Line by googletazer on Tuesday July 19, 2016 @04:57PM (#12124834)
The causes are different though. What you've linked mentions it quite clearly the wealthy are emigrating to to weather any potential storms related to seizure of their assets. A lot of foreign students belong to this category as well, otherwise they would not be able to afford foreign tuition. This isn't your middle class emigrating abroad as has happened with Russia.
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