Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen
by toyg on Sunday June 26, 2016 @10:51AM
(#11981023)
Extending the deadline requires unanimous vote, which, since enlargement to 28 countries, is basically impossible. The interpretation of paragraphs describing art.50 triggering is vague enough that the EU will find ways to trigger it themselves -- it's already been suggested that a speech taking place in an EU setting and getting transcribed will be enough, which means UK diplomats and ministers are now all but ostracized from formal meetings of any sort outside the negotiation process.
There is no way this situation can extend for 10 years. The EU will not allow it, especially if recession hits. If really UK elites get cold feet, we'll have a general election with an europhile party winning and abandoning the whole thing, with a second referendum forced.
As shown in Cameron's [white paper on Brexit from last February](https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachm...), the critical part of the exit process is to buy more than 2 years to define the new relationship (article 50 has basically only this period as a hard fact).
The paper does bold that a realistic timeline would be ~10 years. Meaning the UK needs to find bullet points to negotiate additional time... with all the free goodies of being still a "passive" member of the EU.
So they're buying 4 months now. They need this to understand their leverages, friends and foes. Many in Europe will be receptive on avoiding a clash. Merkel right now shows signs of resilience.
Make no mistake: part of the City and tech industry sees a strong potential in Brexit - as long as there is no "free fall" period after 2 years.
Everything will be about buying time.