I think the whole sticker-shock issue with the price of gas is a chimera. Everyone I know has complained about the price of gas since it passed $1 for the last time in 1999. The price could be 60 cents a gallon and people would complain if they could remember a time when it was only 50 cents. The reason people complain about $3 gas is not because they can't afford it or are unwilling to afford it, it's because they remember paying 79 cents a gallon only 10 years ago. (Like I did with my first car!)

Our current lifestyle means 90% of the gas we buy is an unavoidable cost. If I (living in Lawrence, KS) decided to stop buying gas, or for some financial reason needed to buy less of it, I couldn't get to work, which would definitely make things worse. I also couldn't go buy food, or do much of anything else. People in Manhattan or any European city could probably cut back by using public transport, but that isn't a (realistic) option for me, and I suspect the vast majority of Americans are in a similar situation (if we are anything in Kansas, we are average). I'd be more likely to cut back on food and drop my cell phone than cut back on gas.

The only way to cut gas consumption is a more efficient car... or carpooling. Both are pretty drastic for the average person. Spending $30k to save on gas only makes sense sometimes, and setting up realistic carpooling is harder than paying $3/gallon.

So I bet gas could be $8 a gallon and you wouldn't see (significantly) lower consumption. Like you said, to think people will actually move just to save on gas is far fetched.

I'd move to an urban center just because I like being able to walk/ride everywhere (after living in Madrid)... not because gas is too expensive.

This concept is called "elasticity of demand":

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_elasticity_of_demand

They may not move just to save on gas, but if they're moving anyway for other reasons, you can bet that gas prices will be a factor in where.

I don't think anyone is asserting that gas prices alone will cause people to move. Over the next 20 years or so, many people will have to move anyway, whether they're getting a new job, moving out of their parent's house, moving from an apartment to a house to have kids, or retiring to a smaller house, or any number of other reasons. For these people gas prices and neighborhood walkability might be a significant consideration in where they choose to live compared to people who moved 10 years ago, especially if they were previously living in the suburbs and have felt all the ill effects of it.

>It would take a lot more pain at the pump to get people to give up their quarter acre.

All signs are that "a lot more pain at the pump" is very much on the way.