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Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by s_q_b on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @01:25AM (#11951733)
This is a bad idea.

Wind and solar are simply not enough to bridge the gap between fossil fuels and fusion.[0] Shutting down the country's safest, cheapest, and most consistent method of power generation would be disastrous.

[0]http://phys.org/news/2013-11-experts-nuclear-power.html

Four scientists who have played a key role in alerting the public to the dangers of climate change sent letters Sunday to leading environmental groups and politicians around the world. The letter... urges a crucial discussion on the role of nuclear power in fighting climate change.

Environmentalists agree that global warming is a threat to ecosystems and humans, but many oppose nuclear power and believe that new forms of renewable energy will be able to power the world within the next few decades.

That isn't realistic, the letter said.

"Those energy sources cannot scale up fast enough" to deliver the amount of cheap and reliable power the world needs, and "with the planet warming and carbon dioxide emissions rising faster than ever, we cannot afford to turn away from any technology" that has the potential to reduce greenhouse gases. The letter signers are James Hansen, a former top NASA scientist; Ken Caldeira, of the Carnegie Institution; Kerry Emanuel, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; and Tom Wigley, of the University of Adelaide in Australia.

Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by kristopolous on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @03:06AM (#11952054)
USGS thinks the Diablo Canyon plant should be shutdown (http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/PG-E-USGS-disagree-on-Dia...)

Then at the NRC, there's been multiple DPOs (deferring opinions) (e.g. http://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1425/ML14252A743.pdf)

The UCSUSA has weighed in on its concerns (http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-power/nuclear-power-accidents/...)

When the USGS, NRC, and UCSUSA think something is a bad idea, it's worth listening to them - these aren't anti-nuke people.

There are serious complaints from qualified people about the safety of a specific thing. Please don't inflate this to some generalized "anti-nuclear" movement - it's not about that.

Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by s_q_b on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @04:10AM (#11952251)
Oh certainly the Diablo Canyon plant needs to go. It's running two Gen. II reactors with no passive safety systems in a seismically active zone along a coastline vulnerable to flooding and tsunamis. It's actually rather startling that they closed that plant last.

But I'm not making this about nuclear power in general. The State of California and the media have already done a fine job of that.

Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by kristopolous on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @04:33AM (#11952319)
it's an interesting problem. I understand why these engineers and scientists went through the anti-nuke network to get this thing done, but then the media will frame this as an anti-nuke thing instead of legitimate concern for one specific thing.

I came up with an analogy to help me think about this. Say you are a medical researcher and found some serious adverse health effects to an abortion pill and as a medical professional you think it's unsafe to be on the market. Who do you go through to take action and how will this be portrayed in the media? You have a problem on your hands.

Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by TheHypnotist on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @01:04PM (#11955397)
There are certainly plants that need to be shut down. However, the future of Nuclear and what's on the horizon in terms of reactor technology is so promising it can't be ignored.
Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by toomuchtodo on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @01:27AM (#11951745)
Math please? There is enough wind and solar potential in the United States to meet our energy needs several times over, even when including moving all light vehicles to electric.
Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by pstrateman on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @02:34AM (#11951965)
The storage costs are the issue.

The grid cannot realistically be more than about 20-30% solar PV without matching storage.

Storage is expensive, like 20-30 cents/kWh expensive.

It's just not competitive with natural gas which is available for ~6 cents/kWh.

Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by toomuchtodo on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @02:38AM (#11951978)
Storage is not 20-30 cents/kWh. Storage alone, provided by Solar City in Hawaii, is 14.5 cents/kWh as of this year [1]. These costs will only continue to decline [2].

The price of natural gas will increase again [3] (and currently, its closer to 7-10 cents/kWh, not 6); when that does, it only makes renewables more competitive. Renewables will never get more expensive than they are today; coal will be gone in the next 3-5 years, and natural gas not far behind.

[1] http://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/19/solarcity-deploy-tesla-e...

[2] http://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/26/ev-battery-costs-already...

[3] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm

Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by pstrateman on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @03:48AM (#11952171)
That's certainly an improvement from 20-30 cents/kWh.

However for solar PV with storage to replace natural gas their combined cost is going to need to be less than 6 cents/kWh.

The combined cost of solar PV and storage is currently 20-50 cents/kWh.

Do you really see a 10x performance/cost improvement right around the corner?

Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by toomuchtodo on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @12:59PM (#11955367)
> Do you really see a 10x performance/cost improvement right around the corner?

I see batteries under $100/kWh in <5 years.

Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by jankiel on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @01:52AM (#11951827)
There's a big gap between potential and making it work risht now. How much would that cost?
Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by toomuchtodo on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @01:59AM (#11951846)
A nuclear plant costs ~$9 billion (before cost overruns) per generating unit, and ~10 years to build. Whether that's less or more than solar isn't the point; there isn't time, and no one will finance one.

Utility scale solar is ~$1/kw, and can be operational in a fraction of the time. Importantly, costs continue to decline.

Planned utility scale generation coming online in the next year: http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c.... (note its almost exclusively solar and wind)

Battery storage costs are falling as fast, if not faster, than renewables did:

http://blog.rmi.org/blog_2016_01_21_how_much_does_storage_re...

http://www.utilitydive.com/news/why-battery-storage-is-just-...

There is no other option other than wind and solar, full speed ahead.

Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by s_q_b on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @02:53AM (#11952023)
The calculations regarding the relative feasibility of energy sources include the decline in expense. Assuming molten salt energy storage progresses, storage costs decline steeply. Even including these (very optimistic) projected price declines, solar and wind energy are not enough.

Hence why the very same leading climate scientists who first alerted the world of global warming wrote a detailed public statement pleading for use of nuclear power, and stating that renewables are insufficient to stop climate change.

To believe that all four of them, PhDs hailing from some of the most prestigious institutions in the country with decades of experience, failed to include projected price declines is simply incorrect.

Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by rtpg on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @04:03AM (#11952230)
Well, the drop in price of solar has been pretty unprecedented. I'm not quite sure what happened, but it's been a pretty sharp drop, which isn't really seen in other energy sources. Like a 90% cut in prices in the past 20-odd years.

http://costofsolar.com/management/uploads/2013/06/disruptive... (This is log scale)

Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by toomuchtodo on Thursday June 23, 2016 @12:47AM (#11958899)
Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by archgoon on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @02:53AM (#11952021)
> there isn't time

There's even less time when you're taking existing power capacity offline.

Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by toomuchtodo on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @02:56AM (#11952028)
And yet, PG&E has said they'll be able to replace the displaced generation with renewables, energy efficiency, and battery storage.

Build. more. renewables. faster.

Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by fennecfoxen on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @03:51AM (#11952182)
> And yet, PG&E has said they'll be able to replace the displaced generation with renewables, energy efficiency, and battery storage.

And I'm sure that's exactly what the regulators and the politicians controlling the regulators want to hear. Smart business sense, given the political climate in a state that sees its insurance commissioner trying to strongarm insurance companies doing business in the state into not owning anything related to coal.

Re:California's Last Nuclear Power Plant to Be Shut Down by archgoon on Wednesday June 22, 2016 @03:51AM (#11952180)
Which means they could have put out twice the clean energy in ten years time if they didn't have to shut down the nuclear plant.