Re:What’s Next for Artificial Intelligence
by Houshalter on Monday June 20, 2016 @02:35PM
(#11940151)
But LeCun and Ng also made long term predictions. Lecun said it's unlikely that AI will be dangerous, and Ng said it's unlikely to happen in our lifetime. Both of those predictions are just as speculative as Bostrom's.
>Bostrom is basically dealing in the outcomes of very long joint probabilities, which, multiplied by the probability of each individual variable, is very low.
That's not how probability works. You can't just assume Bostrom is wrong by default. That might work for futurists like Hanson or Kurzweil, which do that. But Bostrom isn't making a huge number of assumptions. His book presents a large number of possible futures, and the dangers of each.
>Bostrom is basically dealing in the outcomes of very long joint probabilities, which, multiplied by the probability of each individual variable, is very low.
That's not how probability works. You can't just assume Bostrom is wrong by default. That might work for futurists like Hanson or Kurzweil, which do that. But Bostrom isn't making a huge number of assumptions. His book presents a large number of possible futures, and the dangers of each.