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A comment on Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference. Parent comment

Re:Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference by r3bl on Thursday June 09, 2016 @11:07AM (#11869862)
Yes, the draws exist, but every other argument you've posted cannot be applied to the first round of group games. Chances are huge that all of the times are going to want to start strong.

As the researchers said multiple times, they're going to be updating their algorithms all of the time and take into account the things they've missed in the current version.

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Re:Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference by tremon on Thursday June 09, 2016 @11:45AM (#11870160)
Chances are huge that all of the times are going to want to start strong.

Except when you're the lowest-ranked team, and starting your group with a match against the favourite. In that case, you're likely to play for damage control (e.g. aim for a draw, don't concede too many goals).

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