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Re:Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference by heinrich5991 on Thursday June 09, 2016 @09:58AM (#11869388)
In chess you can also have a draw.

Either by having the player agree to a draw, or by killing every piece that is not the kings.

Re:Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference by antouank on Thursday June 09, 2016 @10:06AM (#11869436)
Right. But then again, you cannot say it's 100% that player A or player B will win, right? There's a chance for draw that is not negligible.
Re:Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference by psuter on Thursday June 09, 2016 @11:00AM (#11869807)
One common way to represent the probability of outcomes in chess as a single number (e.g. in comparing opening lines) is to say "white gets 55% of the points", which aggregates wins and draws. (So for instance if white wins 50%, draws 25% and loses 25% of the games, it gets 0.5 * 1 + 0.25 * 0.5 + 0.25 * 0 = 62.5% of the points.)
Re:Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference by umanwizard on Thursday June 09, 2016 @11:53AM (#11870211)
In fact, at top levels of play, draw rates are 40% or higher.