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A comment on Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference. Parent comment

Re:Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference by peeky on Thursday June 09, 2016 @09:32AM (#11869231)
I'm interested in how you model the strength of players, is that for the whole squad or the expected starting eleven? The prediction that stood out for me was the Wales vs Slovakia which FIFA rankings and betting odds would both suggest will be closer, would love to hear more about the factors behind that particular prediction.
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Re:Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference by benrjackson on Thursday June 09, 2016 @09:59AM (#11869392)
The Wales starting lineup is missing Gareth Bale (arguably in the top 5 best players in the world). His 'kickscore' is listed as higher than any of the welsh players so I don't understand why the model has excluded him from the starting lineup. See also Portugal and Ronaldo (kickscore 100!).

Interesting but perhaps needs some tweaking to match the expected starting lineups.

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Re:Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference by vicow on Thursday June 09, 2016 @10:06AM (#11869440)
Hi! I'm Victor, one of the researchers behind this project. We used the most recent lineups (up to yesterday) to do the predictions you see on the web page. We will update them with the latest friendlies (e.g., Portugal indeed) and before every game, as soon as we have the official lineups!
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Re:Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference by alexroan on Thursday June 09, 2016 @10:23AM (#11869543)
It may be worth taking competitive matches into account over friendly matches, as the purpose of competitive matches is to win at all cost. Friendly matches, on the other hand, tend to be used primarily for match fitness (especially leading up to tournaments), and for trialling new tactics before the competitive games begin.
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Re:Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference by benrjackson on Thursday June 09, 2016 @10:16AM (#11869501)
Thanks for the clarification and great project!

It will be interesting to see how things change when you get the official lineups. As I'm sure you are aware, teams often rest their 'star' players in friendlies immediately prior to a tournament in order to minimize the risk of injury.

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