Electric vehicle battery costs rapidly declining, Tesla cited as leading

Re:Electric vehicle battery costs rapidly declining, Tesla c... by mikeash on Tuesday June 07, 2016 @08:04PM (#11859053)

I don't think 5% is right. You seemed to think that 30% year-over-year growth in the industry was a reasonable estimate. If it was 35GWh/year in 2013 then that puts it at about 77GWh today and 130GWh in 2018. That puts Tesla at around 10% of total production now, and 23% in 2018.

I can't figure out which part of this you object to. You seem to accept all the numbers, but continue to argue about the shape of the box they're presented in.

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Re:Electric vehicle battery costs rapidly declining, Tesla c... by honkhonkpants on Tuesday June 07, 2016 @08:53PM (#11859244)

I'll spot you 10%, but I think that's still within the realm of linear market behavior. I really don't agree with the original idea (now far upthread) that it required a visionary to lay the path for making all of Tesla's batteries. There are numerous firms around the world totally dedicated to market forecasts for major industries like batteries, car parts, and raw materials.

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Re:Electric vehicle battery costs rapidly declining, Tesla c... by mikeash on Wednesday June 08, 2016 @09:28AM (#11862106)

That's fine, I just objected to the "small fraction" bit, not the rest.

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