My mental conception of this looks like a bell curve - most successful entities require a good amount of (hard, smart, strategic) work and a good amount of (pure, random, chaotic) luck. A very few succeed with a vast amount of hard work and only a small amount of luck, and equally few succeed with a tiny amount of hard work and vast amounts of luck.
I.e. if you're not out there swinging, you are never ever going to hit the ball.