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Re:A Sensible Fix For TSA Security Lines by SilasX on Thursday May 26, 2016 @02:27PM (#11780335)
The other problem with the argument that "terrorism death rates are very low" is that terrorism is intelligently adaptive, while cancer, auto accidents, etc are not. If a terrorist group finds that it can burn 20 members to get 3000 enemy deaths, and no security measures change, they will quickly ramp up to doing e.g. 2000 to 300,000.

There is no similar dynamic for cancer or car accidents.

>This also comes up a lot in arguments about city living ... is frightening to an extent that is not supportable by crime statistics.

The (other) problem with the "cities are statistically safe" argument is: you have to account for the presence of countermeasures.

Sure, the crime rate is about the same ... but that's only because of a) much denser police presence, b) locking up your stuff a lot more securely, c) being a lot more distrusting of strangers.

If you fail to keep up these measures, your fear of crime will be totally justified!

(You can think of it as being the opposite argument of "hospitals must be unsafe because so many people die there".)

Re:A Sensible Fix For TSA Security Lines by Retric on Thursday May 26, 2016 @03:48PM (#11780916)
The total number of terrorists is very low. 9/11 was a major operation and was not something they could ramp up.

PS: Hospitals are dangerous even for healthy people. Much like how trench warfare lead to the 1918 pandemic which killed between 50 and 100 million. Simply being around those with a compromised immune system represents a risk.

Re:A Sensible Fix For TSA Security Lines by SilasX on Thursday May 26, 2016 @05:25PM (#11781762)
>The total number of terrorists is very low. 9/11 was a major operation and was not something they could ramp up.

There is enormous support for terrorism and they have a lot of recruits. If they found something that worked, and nothing changed to make it stop working, you can bet they'd double down.

>PS: Hospitals are dangerous even for healthy people. Much like how trench warfare lead to the 1918 pandemic which killed between 50 and 100 million. Simply being around those with a compromised immune system represents a risk.

I'm aware, and yes, there's a tradeoff between the benefit of the hospital vs the risk of picking up something even worse. Point taken. But if you have a gunshot wound, you should probably go to a hospital. It would be a severe error of logic to say, "most gunshot deaths are in a hospital, so if I have a gunshot wound, I should stay away from a hospital" -- because that figure is an artifact of dumping a disproportionate fraction of living victims there.

It's likewise wrong to say, "cities are safe, look how the crime rate is the same as the suburbs" -- there is much more risk, they just work harder to control it.

Re:A Sensible Fix For TSA Security Lines by Retric on Thursday May 26, 2016 @06:47PM (#11782304)
Over seven years Iraq had 1003 suicide bomb attacks. That's far from zero, but hardly and endless tide. When you consider 9/11 where preceded by an early 'failed' attempt: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bojinka_plot Which included a test bomb that killed one person but failed to down the aircraft. And out of 26 people that attempted 9/11 only 19 where part of the attack you find they actually got somewhat lucky even before heightened security.

The absolute threat is just not that high.

Re:A Sensible Fix For TSA Security Lines by SilasX on Thursday May 26, 2016 @07:08PM (#11782430)
Read the claim again: they will significantly ramp up attacks if they git a high kill ratio and security fails to change in response. The Iraqi forces certainly adapt security in response to the attacks, or they would be much worse.

It's not a refutation to point to zero rampup after a failed attack.

Re:A Sensible Fix For TSA Security Lines by Retric on Thursday May 26, 2016 @09:50PM (#11783340)
The refutation is they tried again after a failed attack, but not the successful one.