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Re:Tech layoffs more than double in Bay Area by wpietri on Friday May 13, 2016 @12:00PM (#11691138)
Could you say more about "WebTV -> YouTube, Netflix"? There are two things I could imagine WebTV meaning here (TVs used for Internet access; broadcast TV including more interactive elements) and both are basically the opposite of YouTube and Netflix.

I'd also question the "VR->Warcraft" thing. the 90s notion of VR was about something much more like the current hype for VR, with head-mounted displays and natural human movement in imaginary spaces. Even in the 90s we had what I think of as the predecessors to WarCraft and MineCraft, which were 3D games like Doom.

I also think you can't sweep timing under the rug like that. The next-big-thing phenomenon has timing as literally the first word. And that's important when talking about technology as a business. PDAs were always a niche business; it took integrating them with the cellphone to make the leap to ubiquity. But none of the PDAs made it into the promised land; Palm even had PDA+Cellphone models, but by then they were too old, too tired, too confused to seize the moment, so Apple did.

Re:Tech layoffs more than double in Bay Area by uola on Friday May 13, 2016 @01:34PM (#11691842)
nsxwolf pointed out that WebTv was something I've never heard about [0]. I guess we didn't get web on the tv so much as tv on the web. I'm guessing the original purpose was to give more people access to the web and that as such is fairly solved by phones. I have a hard time being upset over "they promised us WebTv, but all we got were internet access everywhere".

I think VR was both in the 90s. In large part VR was an interface to getting access to another world. A lot of it stemmed from things like neuromancer for example which isn't really natural world. It wasn't necessarily how realistic a flight simulator is. HTC Vive is quite interesting hese days with the room concept.

It's hard to argue perception of the past though. I'm just saying that plenty of things that are commonplace today, like kids playing (as in the traditional sense of the word) together online, would be science fiction in the 90s.

Regards to timing, I don't think it is unexpected that technology takes a few, or even many, years to live up to expectations. A smartphone is way more like a PDA than it is an early cellphone.

In the end I think the most important part is just having more qualified discussions about these things. We know self-driving cars are going to be a thing and internet connected devices and digital currency, in which capacity it can, should and will be is the interesting part.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MSN_TV