> compiles to native code, specific to a platform > deterministic runtime performance (no GC, no JIT) > lightweight "exceptions"

Seems way more similar to C++ than java.

Also Obj-C's success or failure as a C replacement (I can't imagine using it as one... it's not going to run well on embedded devices) has little to do with swift's future path besides that both languages are heavily used at apple.

The key difference may be that Chris Lattner is basically a compiler superstar, and I think he could make it happen if he chose to.