For a low to middling wind site in the US, with a 7.5 m/s average wind speed represented by a Rayleigh distribution:

Using a GE 1.5-77, the most common turbine in use in the US in the late 2000s, I calculate 40.5% gross capacity factor, and estimate net capacity factor of 33.5%.

Using a GE 2.0-116, one of the most energetic turbines on the market for low-wind sites, I calculate a 53.2% gross capacity factor, and estimate a net capacity factor of 44.1% using the same annual loss parameters as before.

For a hypothetical project of equivalent size we get over 30% more energy every year from the same wind by only changing from the old technology to the new, and we build less infrastructure to support it. The new machines are taller, and we probably need the same amount of total land for the project.

Cringely's assumption that new designs aren't being tried because the industry is stupid is almost certainly wrong. More likely, they're still going after the low hanging fruit, and will start optimizing design for suboptimal locations once they've fully exploited the optimal ones. But there's a lot less profit in using more expensive turbines to harvest less wind.

Another thing vendors are doing now is purposefully running generators beyond their design at higher wind speeds (getting 2.2 MW from a 2.0 MW generator, for example), provided that other operating parameters are measured to be within range. This is usually driven by cooling requirements.

It's easier to dismiss radical thinking than to continually pursue them in the face of pervasive dismissiveness.

It's not. There are a limited number of good onshore wind sites near big loads. California has only four good sites, and they all have big wind farms. There are lots of sites with enough wind northward from the Texas panhandle, but no big loads within a thousand miles.

These may exist but I've not yet seen them.

"Changing Winds: The Evolving Wind Turbine": http://www.powermag.com/changing-winds-the-evolving-wind-tur...

It has (what appears to my untrained eye to be) a quick overview of various designs. To me it seems that vertical turbines makes a lot of sense - if for no other reason than it would seem like most of those designs get you more "turbine" for your build-costs/materials (and less "inert tower").

Obviously, this would be much more costly because of the additional big generator and the complication of the drivetrain. But it'd let you harvest a bunch of energy when it's really windy. And with a vertical-axis mill, not only would this be better for wildlife (lower overall speeds), the generators would be on the ground, not way up in the air, and driven by a shaft from the mill through its tower, so servicing would be easier and the weight and size of the generators and the drivetrain wouldn't be an issue.

This idea has higher turbine costs (and site profitability already ranges from impressive to deeply marginal), and the extra profit from the high end isn't excellent. Cringely overstates the money lost in high-wind conditions - most shutdowns are for low wind or to avoid damage in storm conditions, which are rather different than smooth, profitable high wind.

Further, it might offer major operating-cost hits even with ground-based generators simply by being a major break with existing systems. Obviously that's surmountable, but it means that the system has to be better for a lot of sites to be worthwhile.

That said, there are definitely vertical mill projects in the works, and I wouldn't be surprised if some of them have switchover generators.

This works, but is less efficient and mechanically more taxing on the machine than variable speed, variable pitch angle systems.