Apple had a 2016 Q1 YoY decrease of 25% for revenue in China. They are still making good money but the future is very uncertain for those cash flows.

Because 6S is a boring phone, and people didn't want it as bad as 6.

The argument is that regardless of Apple's current profits it could all be gone tomorrow without any recourse.

“Your market status in China is temporary, until the government can replace you”

China has 2-3 (due to different standard) of the top smartphone manufacturers in the world, I don't think govt cannot replace Apple. Yet apple is still there.

China just cut off some of Apple's services without any warning:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/22/technology/apple-no-longer...

> Last week, Apple’s iBooks Store and iTunes Movies were shut down in China, just six months after they were started there. Initially, Apple apparently had the government’s approval to introduce the services. But then a regulator, the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television, asserted its authority and demanded the closings, according to two people who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The biggest threat may be a security/encryption related court case similar to the one the US just backed down on. Apple would be put in a very tough place.