Re:Our Brain Uses Statistics to Calculate Confidence, Make D...
by haberman on Thursday May 05, 2016 @08:38PM
(#11640845)
> The whole point of the experiment is "how does this machinery operate?"
Yes, exactly!
If you say "the machinery operates in way X" (where X="Bayesian statistics"), you have to actually prove that. You can't just assert it and say that people who disagree with you have bad priors.
I have no doubt that you can construct a hypothetical Bayesian decision-making process that could have yielded any possible decision that any human has ever made. Just like any religious person can take any story that has ever happened and construct a story about why it is compatible with the existence of God.
But unless you have a falsifiable experiment to prove that the brain actually operates this way, your explanation is an unverifiable just-so story. And in this case I don't find it at all convincing.
Don't get me wrong, I understand your theoretical argument. I just think you are taking an unjustified (in my perspective) leap of faith to presume that your story reflects reality.
Yes, exactly!
If you say "the machinery operates in way X" (where X="Bayesian statistics"), you have to actually prove that. You can't just assert it and say that people who disagree with you have bad priors.
I have no doubt that you can construct a hypothetical Bayesian decision-making process that could have yielded any possible decision that any human has ever made. Just like any religious person can take any story that has ever happened and construct a story about why it is compatible with the existence of God.
But unless you have a falsifiable experiment to prove that the brain actually operates this way, your explanation is an unverifiable just-so story. And in this case I don't find it at all convincing.
Don't get me wrong, I understand your theoretical argument. I just think you are taking an unjustified (in my perspective) leap of faith to presume that your story reflects reality.