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A comment on The Impact of Index Investing: A Follow-Up. Parent comment

Re:The Impact of Index Investing: A Follow-Up by tosseraccount on Wednesday May 04, 2016 @11:16AM (#11628933)
It's unlikely to invest in a index that gives you a 10x return.

Average return from S&P500 from 1928-2015 is 11.41% [ source : http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/... ]

Note that this is not inflation adjusted; inflation is about 3.4% historically.

It'd take a little over 21 years to get a nominal 10x return at 11.4% average return.

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Re:The Impact of Index Investing: A Follow-Up by ultramancool on Wednesday May 04, 2016 @11:22AM (#11628984)
Yeah, this is basically why passive is great. People say hedge funds are good in a downturn, but the odds of a downturn in any given year are not actually that high.
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Re:The Impact of Index Investing: A Follow-Up by tosseraccount on Wednesday May 04, 2016 @11:29AM (#11629029)
From the Professor Damodaran's historical returns link:

From 1928-2015, of the 88 years, 24 were down years. Probability of a down year is 27%

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