1. On the first ballot, pledged delegates will be counted as having voted for their assigned nominee
2. Thereafter they can do whatever they want. You can call this "politics", or "the will of the delegates", or "shenanigans" if you want.
After Indiana, Trump will inevitably have enough pledged delegates to win on the first ballot, so that's that.
> What about all the party/convention rules shenanigans they can do, where they can still nominate anyone who won delegates? Was that a misconception?
There was some vague talk about a rule change to unbind delegates on the first ballot, but that was never, ever, ever going to happen.
You don't know that. Kasich is still in the race for a reason. All they have to do is keep Trump from getting to that magic number of delegates, and then they go to a brokered convention. It's a bit of a long shot, but it's still possible, especially with Cruz out of the way.
There are 520 delegates still up for grabs; that means he needs just over a third of them. Which...he's going to get.
Projections had him getting at least 133 delegates in California before his only serious rival dropped out, and he's got a lock on 51 delegates from NJ. Add in the proportional share he'll get from Washington and Oregon based on current totals, and...
...yeah. It's over. The reason Cruz dropped out is he can do the math. If he'd won Indiana, AND all the other contests still up for grabs, Trump could have been stopped short of 1,237. With Indiana in his pocket, he can't be.
You don't know that; you're making assumptions. When this race started, everyone thought the idea of Trump making it this far was utterly ridiculous, because of their own assumptions at the time.
I admit it's a real long shot, but the elections aren't over yet. Anything could happen. If it were really over, Kasich would have dropped out too. Cruz dropped out because it's both mathematically impossible for him to get 1237 votes, and for him to get the nomination in a brokered convention (he's just too unpopular within his party). Kasich will be an easy win at the brokered convention if that happens, so he's staying in until Trump reaches 1237.
Finally, who knows what kind of things are going on behind the scenes. I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP pulls some really dirty tricks to deny Trump the nomination somehow. Face it, their survival depends on it.
It was over for Kasich a LONG time ago, but he stayed in.
> Kasich will be an easy win at the brokered convention if that happens, so he's staying in until Trump reaches 1237.
...I feel like we've been watching different races. With different candidates. On a different planet.
> I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP pulls some really dirty tricks to deny Trump the nomination somehow. Face it, their survival depends on it.
Both parties have survived worse nominees. The Democrats survived Mcgovern after all.
I guess so, if you really think the GOP actually likes either Trump or Cruz. They haven't hidden their contempt for either of those two, and the idea that either of them would win the nomination in a brokered convention is sheer lunacy.
This is moot now, since Cruz and Kasich have suspended their campaigns. But seriously, how can you not think Kasich would be an easy win if, through some miracle for the GOP, they got a brokered convention? Who do you think would win?
This is going to be an interesting election. I predict half the Democrat voters are going to vote for Trump, and half the Republican voters are going to vote for Hillary.
It'd be really interesting if Bernie changed his mind and decided to run as an independent. With so many people hating both Trump and Hillary, Bernie could actually win that one, maybe.