Your numbers seem off:

Starbucks latte with nonfat milk = 168 calories

http://caloriecount.about.com/calories-starbucks-coffee-caff...

6" Subway Cheesesteak (It was the worst one I could find on browsing) = 360 calories

http://caloriecount.about.com/calories-subway-sandwiches-6-c...

Small bag of Lays potato chips = 150 calories

http://www.dietfacts.com/html/nutrition-facts/frito-lay-lays...

Kit-kat bar = 210 calories

http://caloriecount.about.com/calories-hersheys-kit-kat-milk...

Fazoli's spaghetti and meatballs (Again, the worst I could find) = 720 calories

http://caloriecount.about.com/calories-fazolis-spaghetti-mea...

If you were to add in an extra large vanilla shake from McDonald's you'd add a quick 1100 calories to your day.

I used the bruegger's bagel and medium latte from their website:

http://www.brueggers.com/documents/nutrition.pdf

Subway value was from the "Cold Cut Combo":

http://www.subway.com/subwayroot/menunutrition/nutrition/pdf...

(Note that Subway's page says the cheesesteak sub you mention is 520 calories, not 360.)

spaghetti and meatballs value was from here http://www.calorieking.com/foods/calories-in-italian-spaghet...

I did inflate the potato chips, I thought the small bag was 3oz, not 1oz. Also I thought the kit kat was per bar.

3800 calories is still only a little bit of work. Most people I know drink 2 lattes, 2 or more beers, and would consider the 6" sub the "diet" option.

Yay for anecdotal evidence! The people I know eat (for the most part) quite healthy, don't drink any soda, don't eat junk food, etc.

As was mentioned by someone else, if the average American ate 3800 calories a day they would continually gain weight until they reached the equilibrium point of maintenance calories.

The average height of America males is 5'10". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_height

The average weight of American males is 191lbs. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Body_weight

Given those numbers, and an age of 35 years, with a base metabolic rate, calorie maintenance is 1809kcal/day and 2488kcal/day for exercise 3 times/week (surely more than the "average" American) http://www.freedieting.com/tools/calorie_calculator.htm

The equilibrium point for 3800kcal/day and 3 times/week exercise is 400 pounds!

Methinks you're still fudging the numbers.

I suppose this comment thread is pretty illustrative of why it's so hard for people to count calories to lose weight - even though we both looked up data it was different enough that it could be significant in someone's diet.

I was personally enlightened, at least.