The future won't be a place like that by default. As phones mature and features stabilize, we're seeing the same trend that we saw with desktop PCs five years ago: Away from "must update every 18 months" and towards "my old one is still good and I like it, so why upgrade?"

This reduction in churn and corresponding reduction in new device sales is great for consumers, which is why all of the large companies (MS, Apple) are trying to push the subscription model, to try and safeguard their revenue streams.