2002 was a black swan event (because of 9/11); 2009 not so much, many institutions had been calling the housing bubble since 2004 and even Greenspan acknowledged it in 2007. A bubble that is acknowledged as such 2 years in advance by the central bank is not a black-swan event (defined as a surprise event that is impossible to predict).

The 2008 bubble was eminently predictable. The problem was that no one knew the exact trigger, and no one had a politically acceptable means to deflate the bubble until the domino effect started, and then hedge funds and then major banks started collapsing.

Until the knife started falling, no one had a financial incentive to stop. After all, subprime mortgages have crazy interest rates, and if you're BoA or JP Morgan Chase, the government will probably step in to stop your collapse...