That's only half of the equation. They can't get more pilots by paying more, because the requirements to become a pilot are so arduous. According to the article, trainee pilots have to pony up ~$150k in training costs, as well as spend many years working in scarce non-commercial-carrier jobs. So in part, the solution would be to create more non-commercial-carrier pilot jobs, and/or for airlines to start sponsoring trainee pilots to make it more attractive (or even possible) for them to get qualified.

The article mentions JetBlue is running a so-called ab initio program where they train pilots directly for the low sum of $125k! That's right -- pay $125k to (maybe) get a good job in 15 years.

As long as they charge 6 figures, there isn't a real pilot shortage. This is just the industry whining in the hope of finding a sucker (US taxpayers) to subsidize a training program for them.

There's only one other possible source: the ticket price.

Cancelling flights is pretty expensive. I would not be terribly surprised if the total cost in foregone revenue (both from the flights not flown and from the opportunity cost of the decreased inventory on the flight passengers are rebooked onto), aircraft parking fees, couriering lost luggage and in compensation/accommodation provided (whatever little that is) is in the thousands of dollars per flight.

In other words, all other things being equal, you can probably train a decent number of pilots from savings from not cancelling flights, without plucking tax payers or raising ticket prices.

Probably. And I am sure that airlines CFOs are keeping that in mind.

Then train the pilots. The airlines have out-sourced the training costs to the pilots, and then expect them to (at least initially) work for a pittance. $25K starting salaries, weird seniority rules etc.

And then they wonder why no-one is biting...

Enough people are biting to keep the system working.

And yet here ware discussing an article about how the system isn't working (anymore).

Oh, it's still working. It's just some people believe it may stop working.

Being a junior corporate lawyer is a miserable job. You need to study for 4 years of undergrad, pony up $150-200K for grad school, and then there's a >50% chance you wind up in a low paid job. Then if you do get one of the plum jobs, you are doing 60+ hours a week of grunt work buried under mounds of paperwork.

Why isn't there a shortage of corporate lawyers? Because they pay them very well.

The industry can figure out a way to get people through the system if they really want to. They can find a way to hire military pilots if they really want to.

I've been watching this government-made crisis develop over the last 24 months.

Currently, you need 1,200 hours experience from a designated aviation college or 1,500 hours experience from GA.

I believe airlines will lobby Congress to halve the number of hours in the very near future as they get data on the massive pilot shortage.

Wasn't this requisite level of experience upped by Congress not terribly long ago?

Yes. In the US, originally you could be a First Officer without holding the ATP (Airline Transport Pilot) certificate. The ATP requires 1500 hours of flight time. Prior to the rule change, you would see regional airlines recruiting pilots with as low as 400 hours of total time (TT) for FO positions, allowing them to build the requisite hours to obtain their ATP.

Careful: don't apply that thinking to the "engineering shortage" or you'll never hear the end of it on HN. Engineers live in magicland, and in magicland, supply curves don't exist. People should work for passion and $60k, and if you don't, you're not a real engineer.

Not sure what you mean. Plenty, if not most, engineers on HN are compensated at market rate for their region and skill-set. The uproar over the anti-poaching scandal involving Apple, Google, etc. from a few years ago was due to the artificial wage deflation that it created. I can't recall folks from HN siding with the corporations during that time. Sure, sweat equity is valued at early-stage cash-strapped startups, but that is in addition to "passion" and a lower salary.

Since when airlines make a lot of money? Their profit margins are so thin I wonder how they survive at all.

The solution is obvious, of course. Machines can drive cars, hence, they will be also flying planes soon.

Pilots complaining their jobs are routine? Good. All routine jobs are to be eliminated, the sooner the better.

In a historical context, you are right. Warren Buffett once said something to the effect of, "A far-sighted capitalist would have shot down the Wright Brothers" [0]

More recently the combination of consolidation, less competition and lower fuel costs have created record profits. [1] [2] [3]

Also, machines are already doing most of the flying. "Autopilot" comes from aviation. :-) Automatic planes are actually a less tricky problem than automatic cars, as there's much less random stuff to navigate in the air. [4]

[0] http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2011/12/business-quo...

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/07/business/energy-environmen...

[2] http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2016/01/12/airl...

[3] http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/08/us-carriers-...

[4] http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/24/travel/autopilot-airlines/

On "less competition" — I don't know, maybe in the US. European airlines are currently busy with outcompeting each other to hell. I fly Swiss (that one that once was a premium airline, with silver dinnerware etc.) Twice a week. Average ticket price? $50 (Geneva to Barcelona). Trains are way more expensive now.

Yes - I think this is a US-centric article.

I believe the airports themselves need more automation.

A modern large airport is the pinnacle of efficiency. Most of things there are already quite automated, or on the way to it.

This is what all the pilots I've met are saying.

It's what every employee in any profession is ever saying.

Well, if there is an employee shortage ...

Not the whole issue. At the very least, raising wages significantly would mean higher ticket prices which in turn means lower demand.

The airlines are also afraid to put pilots in a situation of power at the negotiation table.

Right. This is the joy of a market. If a skill is scarce, people pay more for it. That encourages people to supply more of it.

Tinfoil hat: underpay the pilots... "oh look we don't have enough pilots"... automation time!

It's not a tinfoil hat, it is the only solution that will inevitably be implemented.

In the world where I routinely get cross-Europe plane tickets for $30, airline pilots are about as glamorous as truck drivers, and will be replaced by robots about as soon. And no, nobody wants to go back to the time when average ticket price was $300 or more.