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A comment on Steve Miller: The Whole Music Industry Is Fuckin' Gangsters and Crooks. Parent comment

Re:Steve Miller: The Whole Music Industry Is Fuckin' Gangste... by SeanLuke on Tuesday April 12, 2016 @11:18PM (#11485458)
> (Update: I just found a bit a data that states that Pandora accounts for ~10% of new music discovery which is a lot better than I would have guessed.)

This sounds like a version of Russell and Norvig's Mengitis question. The probability you have a stiff neck if you have meningitis is 70%. But what is the probability that you have meningitis if you have a stiff neck? Keep in mind that Meningitis is 1/50,000 cases but stiff necks are 1/100 cases. Answer: 0.14%, quite small.

Similarly, the probability that you are on Pandora if you are discovered is 1/10. But what is the probability that you are discovered if you're on Pandora? Likely very, very, very small.

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Re:Steve Miller: The Whole Music Industry Is Fuckin' Gangste... by riprowan on Wednesday April 13, 2016 @05:52AM (#11486906)
> the probability that you are on Pandora if you are discovered is 1/10. But what is the probability that you are discovered if you're on Pandora? Likely very, very, very small.

I'm not sure that's what the analysis is saying. I think the analysis is saying, "among discoverers, when discovery occurred, the discoverer was using [CHANNEL] with X% probability".

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