So many companies won't ditch IE6 until fewer people use it. Of course, the surest way to get IE6 users to upgrade is for support to die. Thus the IE6 snake of suckitude begins to eat its own tail.
It could well be that it won't be until their hardware dies and they're forced to get a new computer that a lot of people will upgrade their browser.
As I said in my first post, I don't think IE6 will be killed off, just that most developers will stop caring unless they have a real reason not to. Someone developing an app to order for a corporate client will continue caring for a long time yet, but for most of us it is dwindling rapidly as an issue.
Here's a TechCrunch article that actually quotes IE6's browser share at 20% - http://techcrunch.com/2010/02/02/internet-explorer-browser-s...
Of course Google have other interests in pushing modern browsers, but I would be flabbergasted if they haven't done a rigourous cost/benefit analysis on the decision. Given their economies of scale, I think this is an indication to those of us with more limited resources that we should just ignore IE6 users unless we have strong evidence that they matter. In the Pareto sense, it's just not a good use of developer time.
I have no evidence for it, but I have an intuitive expectation that IE6 users are generally bad customers - I would expect that they demand more customer support, are less likely to pay for online services, are more likely to contribute negatively to communities etc. Of course there are plenty of users who are stuck on IE6 because of bad corporate IT policy, but there are plenty who are too lazy or uninformed to upgrade their browser and frankly I don't want that kind of person as a customer.