It doesn't matter. If they are half as good and get half the pay, then by 22 they have 4 years of exp, and 2 years of salary, vs. no exp, and 4 years of debt.

I lucked out and happened to turn 23 the year the property boom started, my degree would have cost me over $500K in lost opportunities and cost. In my case I started out in tech support, and had to find my way into dev.

A lot of assumptions in there: comparing apples to apples (that the 18 YO has same skills as 22 YO w/ CS degree), that they went into debt for school, that they didn't work during school, that they didn't get experience from internships, etc.

It's definitely not "opportunity costs win every time."

Anecdotally, I went to a state school with decent computer engineering and CS programs, got all kinds of experience getting paid to write code for different groups throughout the university, met a few professors and like minded individuals in classes who wound up throwing more work my way throughout my entire career, and was 'only' $45k in debt.

My first job out of school paid me $60k/yr (2006) and I was over $100k in three. I learned a lot in my CpE and CS classes, but I gained a ton of experience at market rate I never would've gotten as an 18 year old know it all.

Not really related but even though I've spent most of my career using my CS teachings, the EE learning that was part of my CpE studies sure has come in handy with the IoT explosion. I knew next to nothing about electrical engineering when I entered university. Had I not gone I wouldn't have known how much I like electronics and robotics.