Re:Cheap oil is taking shipping routes back to the 1800s
by maxerickson on Saturday March 05, 2016 @08:58AM
(#11229508)
The big problem would be an unplanned, extended shutdown. The locks are currently shut down between January and March.
I wonder how much slack there is in steel consumption. 2/3 of US steel production is already from recycled material, I can see the volume of recycled material increasing with higher scrap prices (so steel production would be able to stay at 65+ percent of current levels), and low value producers would be the first ones to shut down (so probably consumer products like low quality chain or fencing, things that people can pretty well do without). I think it's an easy strategic decision to build a second larger lock, but the probability of catastrophe seems overblown.
I wonder how much slack there is in steel consumption. 2/3 of US steel production is already from recycled material, I can see the volume of recycled material increasing with higher scrap prices (so steel production would be able to stay at 65+ percent of current levels), and low value producers would be the first ones to shut down (so probably consumer products like low quality chain or fencing, things that people can pretty well do without). I think it's an easy strategic decision to build a second larger lock, but the probability of catastrophe seems overblown.