Re:Why America abandoned nuclear power, and what we can lear...
by pdonis on Wednesday March 02, 2016 @10:05PM
(#11214768)
I think the perceived "black swan event risk" of nuclear is the result of over-hyping a few incidents rather than doing a rational across the board risk assessment. When a rational across the board risk assessment is done, nuclear does less harm per unit of power generated than any other energy technology. But the harm from other technologies is distributed in space and time (for example, coal dust in the air and radioactivity in coal ash), so it doesn't get the big media play.
Re:Why America abandoned nuclear power, and what we can lear...
by api on Wednesday March 02, 2016 @10:07PM
(#11214775)
I don't disagree per se, but I think if you also factor in a lot of other sticky nasty things about current-generation nuclear power it's one of the issues that weighs it down.
I also think PITA factor is kind of a death by a thousand cuts -- a "long tail" as I said.
Re:Why America abandoned nuclear power, and what we can lear...
by Pxtl on Wednesday March 02, 2016 @11:11PM
(#11214980)
The thing is that overbuilding solar/wind to the point that the minimal output overcomes peak requirements is insanely expensive. Nuclear is expensive, but not as expensive as overbuilt or offshore (consistent) wind or solar.
Elon uses high PITA factor when talking about why SpaceX isn't pursuing hydrogen as a rocket fuel. It similarly looks awesome on paper but results in higher TCO and higher complexity in practice. It's cheaper (according to SpaceX) to use kerosene or methane and build a bigger rocket.
For nukes vs. renewables it's likely overall cheaper to just over-build renewables and storage than to handle the long tail of pain from current-type nuclear. Spend a few billion dealing with nuclear waste, or spend a few billion on more generation and storage capacity. The former is sticky and complicated, while the latter is just straightforward commodity scaling of stuff everyone already knows how to build and handle. It's stupid and simple and scalable and if it's not enough just do more of it. In other words: just build a bigger rocket.
What I say applies to conventional and near-term fission. Fusion and other exotics might be a different ballgame. Fusion would likely be complex and high capital cost but it doesn't have the waste and "black swan failure" issues that pee in the pool for fission.