I look at electric scooters vs gas scooters in Asia as a template. At some point in the past 5-7 years, they just took off, and seem to have crushed gas scooters in a matter of years (at least where I’ve traveled). There was some inflection point of cost and performance that was hit, and then wham.

I think that point may be a bit further off for electric cars, but 2040? I don’t think that’s a very safe bet.

I came from an SE Asian country and people still don't buy electric scooters as much because it is still more expensive and somewhat slower than gas. But in China, I agree. All are electric now.

If there was another oil crash, wouldn't that drive gas prices down further? At 50 cents per gallon a gas car probably looks like a very attractive option.