Pretty much spot on, on every point. I've been starting to worry about the whole 'war' possibility as well. We might find out about the latter in a couple of weeks when the Saudis and about 10 other allies conduct massive 'training exercises' on the Syrian border.

On the bright-side, even the most conventional institutional macro-economists are finally acknowledging these problems: http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp160210_slides.pdf

FYI the Bank of International Settlements is 'the Central Bankers' Bank', and the slides are from a speech given by its 'Head of Monetary and Economic Department'. The last dot point on the 'summary' slide (#2) really jumps out:

   "Need to abandon debt-fuelled growth model"