News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died. Parent comment

Re:U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died by Steko on Saturday February 13, 2016 @07:49PM (#11096524)
Well the simplest game theory is (100% chance to be nominated now but near 0% chance to be confirmed) vs (??% chance to be nominated later but 90%+ chance to be confirmed) which seems fairly straightforward. Given current outlook for POTUS election I would decline in their shoes. An older nominee or one that expected 8+ years of GOP presidents might reasonably say this is their only chance and take it though.

I guess an interesting question is whether being nominated now and not approved or stonewalled until withdrawn disqualifies you from being nominated again. I think the default answer is 'yes' (disqualified) although various circumstances could allow it to happen.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died by aggie on Saturday February 13, 2016 @09:38PM (#11096900)
> near 0% chance to be confirmed

This seems like very unreasonable estimate. Being election season, the Republicans will be sensitive to public opinion and stalling for 9+ months could cement the perception of being obstructionists. If Obama nominates a somewhat moderate candidate, they may decide to live with it.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has died by cookiecaper on Sunday February 14, 2016 @11:38AM (#11098898)
Yeah, this is an opportunity for Obama to get airtime for a jurist that is too far left to ever get confirmed.
[ Parent | on HN ]