I agree that the 2016 election becoming a foregone conclusion is a circumstance in which a nomination might happen, but it's the only one. Equally importantly, by the time the election becomes reasonably predictable, Obama will be butting up against the limits of the window in which he can get a nomination through even in favorable conditions.

Obama will not replace Scalia. I like the Dem's chances this cycle and so am not despondent about this.